Click arrow to expand 2022 Masters odds via BetMGM
2022 Masters Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -225 |
| Cameron Smith | +260 |
| Sungjae Im | +1400 |
| Shane Lowry | +5000 |
| Justin Thomas | +6600 |
| Corey Conners | +10000 |
| Charl Schwartzel | +12500 |
| Dustin Johnson | +20000 |
| Rory McIlroy | +20000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +25000 |
| Danny Willett | +30000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +40000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +50000 |
The third round of the Masters is behind us, with Scottie Scheffler holding a three-shot lead at 9-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday at Augusta National. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, featuring plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
I mentioned in my first-round analysis how iron play and scrambling are the two biggest indicators of success at Augusta based on the data of previous champions. It should be used to narrow down the best picks for this tournament.
We saw this trend in full effect last year, with defending champion Hideki Matsuyama finishing fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, fifth in SG:Around the Green, second in SG: Tee to Green and sixth in Scrambling.
Below, I outline my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five of five correct registers a 12.5x payout; four of five correct registers a 2x payout; and, three of five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Masters Props
Justin Thomas: Under 71.5 Strokes
I pushed on his prop in Round 3, and I'm going back to the well once again. Thomas sits tied at sixth at 1-under following Saturday's 72.
A few par fours gave JT some trouble on Saturday, but I expect that to be figured out on Sunday. I think Thomas continues to make a run toward a top-five finish and will need a final good effort on Sunday to make It happen.
Thomas' metrics suggest a good closing round is imminent, as he currently ranks fourth in the field in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Tee to Green and 12th in Scrambling.
Cameron Smith: Under 71.5 Strokes
Smith is another guy who I'm going back on the well on after hitting his under on Saturday. After his brilliant round-low 68 on Saturday, Smith finds himself in second place at 6 under.
I think Smith continues his late push as his game has been outstanding all around now that the putting regressed back to the mean. Currently, Smith ranks first in the field in SG Approach the Green and second in SG Tee to Green.
Smith will be partnered with Scottie Scheffler on Sunday in what should be a two-man race for the Green Jacket.
Scottie Scheffler: Under 71.5 Strokes
Speaking of Scheffler, I think he holds onto his lead and wins the Masters. Scheffler has simply been brilliant, shooting a 71 or better in each of the first three rounds.
Quite frankly, Scheffler should be up by even more strokes based on his metrics. In a dominant fashion, Scheffler currently ranks fifth in the field in SG Around the Green, seventh in SG Approach the Green, first in SG Tee to Green, and second in Scrambling.
What the world's number one ranked golfer is doing right now is simply remarkable, and I am excited to see him close this thing out tomorrow.
Jon Rahm: Over 72.5 Strokes
We are getting incredible value on this number just because of his name. Currently tied for 41st at 7-over, Rahm's game is just not there this tournament.
Relative to the rest of the remaining field, Rahm's metrics are awful as he ranks 35th in SG: Around-the-Green, 38th in SG Tee-to-Green and 45th in Scrambling. Rahm has shot a 73 or worse in two of the first three rounds, and I don't see him improving much on Sunday following Saturday's brutal 77.
Rory McIlroy: Under 10 Fairways Hit
While I do believe McIlroy will make a valiant push on Sunday, I don't think it will be due to his driver. McIlroy's driver has not done him justice in either of the last two rounds as he has not hit more than 10 fairways on either Friday or Saturday.
For the tournament, McIlroy ranks just 31st amongst the remaining field in driving accuracy. If we get another windy day, as the forecast is suggesting, then I would be shocked if McIlroy hit 10 or more fairways.
