Ladies and gentlemen, Masters week is here!
I'm not going to lie, it doesn't take much for me to enjoy golf. A little sweat regardless of the tournament will do the trick. However, nothing quite compares to Augusta National. Even if all of my bets and all of my DFS lineups are dead by the time the weekend rolls around, I will still be glued to my couch watching the best golf tournament in the world.
As someone that provides and consumes a ton of content each week, I am a big fan of transparency. Since starting this article, I have yet to pick a winner. Droughts are going to happen in golf betting, but I am hoping to break out of the slump at The Masters.
Augusta National is the most famous golf course in the world, but there are some subtle changes that we should cover before getting into the bets. For starters, they lengthened two of the holes on the back nine. The 11th hole now measures well over 500 yards and is sure to be one of the toughest tests on the course. Adding yardage to the par-5 15th hole will make it a little tougher to go for the green in two.
In total, the course now measures over 7,500 yards. On top of that, they strategically mow the fairways in the opposite direction in order to limit the roll-out of drives. There has also been a lot of rain in the area this year, so many are suggesting that the course could play closer to 7,800 yards. Distance has always been a premium at this course and I expect that to be the case again this year.
Approach play is always critical, but this isn't your standard target golf course on the PGA Tour. The greens are contoured and fairways present uneven lies. Most of the top highlights from Augusta National are golfers using the slopes in order to get closer to the hole. Knowing the course and knowing where to miss is half the battle with approach shots. Similarly, being creative around the greens can really come in handy (see: Jordan Spieth).
Once golfers get on the green, they will face lightning fast bentgrass greens (14 on the stimpmeter if conditions allow). Making putts will always come in handy, but lag putting is half the battle. The three-putt percentage here is extremely high each and every year.
Ultimately, we want golfers in good form, that have good course history, and that don't have a weakness in their game. Easy enough, right?
Top Bet: Brooks Koepka (+2000)
I don't know if you have heard, but this Brooks character is quite good in the majors. In fact, he has 12 top five finishes in his last 20 major starts. Let that sink in for a minute. He's been in contention at 60% of the majors he has played over the last six years. We can throw out his missed cut here last year, as he was essentially playing on one leg. Prior to that, he posted finishes of T7, T2, and T11 at The Masters. He gained 6.2 strokes ball striking in his last stroke play event and backed it up with a solid outing at the match play event. He's primed for another run at a major.
Longshot Bet: Louis Oosthuizen (+5500)
The knock on King Louis right now is his form. Sure, his best finish in his last three starts is a tie for 30th, but he hasn't missed a cut on the PGA Tour since January of 2021. He still hasn't won in North America, but he's finished runner-up at all of the majors. Even better, he finished second, second, third, and 26th in the four majors in 2020. He doesn't have a weakness in his game and he's made eight straight cuts at The Masters. When it comes to long-shots, all we can ask for is a golfer that could have a chance on Sunday.
DFS Value: Paul Casey ($7,600 DK / $9,600 FD)
The masses are clinging to Corey Conners this week and rightly so. Consequently, Casey is getting overlooked in DFS. Everyone is scared about the back injury that forced him to withdraw from the match play event. However, if he decided to sit out that event and was coming into this week fresh off a third place finish at THE PLAYERS, he would be one of the highest owned golfers of the week. He has a great track record in majors and has three top six finishes in his last seven starts at Augusta National.
Best of luck and enjoy the best week in golf.
