2022 Masters Picks, Predictions: Odds & 6 Bets for Viktor Hovland, More

It's been almost nine months since we've last had a major championship played in golf. After a jam-packed season with six played in an 11-month span at one point, this has felt like a lifetime.

We return to Augusta National to play the Masters with excitement arguably at an all-time high. The first item that must be mentioned is the potential inclusion of Tiger Woods in the field. Just a few weeks ago, most people would have thought the chances of the 15-time major champion playing this week would be slim to none. It will be captivating to see what Tiger can do at a course he loves when he hasn't played competitively since November 2020.

Another interesting factor this year is the fact that some changes have been made to the course. One of the biggest was to the 11th hole, which saw its tee moved back and to the left by about 15 yards. The par 4 now measures 520 yards, which is longer than the par-5 13th.

The par-5 15th hole has also been altered. A new tee box was added to stretch the hole’s length to 550 yards.

“Every green has been re-done, every green has gotten softer than it used to be when I first played it," Woods said. "Just because of the fact that where the golf ball has changed, we’re hitting the same irons but not the same trajectory.

“We’re hitting 8-irons from where Jack (Nicklaus) was hitting 8-irons, but 8-irons are from 185 yards, so the angle of descent is slightly different from what Balata balls used to be.”

“Some of the greens have gotten more difficult," he added. "The 11th green, the Larry Mize shot is gone. There’s no bump and run over there. They’ve put a little mound there on the right-hand side and that’s the bailout, the bailout right away from the lake.”

Without further ado, let's get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.

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Masters Statistical Preview & Picks

Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast bentgrass greens. The course's primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Past Winners at the Masters 

• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
• 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
• 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
• 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

5 Key Stats For Augusta National

Let's take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

In the past six years, the golfers who led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week finished first, first, second, third, first and first. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Will Zalatoris (+27.5) (+3300)
2. Viktor Hovland (+26.4) (+2000)
3. Russell Henley (+26.1) (+6600)
4. Justin Thomas (+21.8) (+1400)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.9) (+3300)

Course History

More so than any other course on TOUR, knowing your way around Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.

In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past.

Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 24 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):

1. Dustin Johnson (+2.3) (+1600)
2. Jon Rahm (+2.2) (+1000)
3. Rory McIlroy (+2.0) (+1600)
4. Justin Rose (+2.0) (+8000)
5. Jordan Spieth (+1.9) (+1600)

Strokes Gained: Par 4 

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5's at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 4 in past 24 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+33.2) (+1400)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+31.8)(+1600)
3. Tom Hoge (+29.0) (+15000)
4. Brian Harman (+28.6) (+12500)
5. Cameron Young (+28.5) (+15000)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

1. Joaquin Niemann (+12.3) (+5000)
2. Daniel Berger (+11.8) (+4000)
3. Luke List (+11.4) (+12500)
4. Danny Willett (+10.5) (+20000)
5. Rory McIlroy (+10.3) (+1600)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bentgrass/Lightning

I expect the greens to be faster in the spring than they were in the fall. The USGA calculates that on average, they're the fastest greens in the country. Three putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning bentgrass in past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+25.9) (+3300)
2. Jason Kokrak (+18.7) (+12500)
3. Patrick Reed (+17.7) (+6600)
4. Justin Rose (+17.1) (+8000)
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+10.2) (+25000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25.4%); Course History (20.1%); SG: Par 4 (18.21%); SG: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning (18.2%); and SG: ARG (14.2%).

1. Cameron Smith (+1600)
2. Justin Thomas (+1400)
3. Daniel Berger (+4000)
4. Tom Hoge (+15000)
5. Xander Schauffele (+2200)
6. Russell Henley (+6600)
7. Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
8. Louis Oosthuizen (+4000)
9. Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
10. Rory McIlroy (+1600)
11. Joaquin Niemann (+5000)
12. Webb Simpson (+8000)
13. Robert McIntyre (+12500)
14. Jon Rahm (+1000)
15. Talor Gooch (+10000)
16. Luke List (+12500)
17. Corey Conners (+6000)
18. Sam Burns (+4000)
19. Will Zalatoris (+3500)
20. Justin Rose (+8000)

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Outright Bets

Brooks Koepka (+2000)

Brooks Koepka seems to be rounding into form at the right time to contend for another major championship.

With two top-16 finishes in his past three stroke-play events and a positive showing at the WGC-Dell Match Play, it could be argued that the four-time major champion has been gearing up to peak at Augusta National. Prior to last year, when he played on basically one leg, he had consecutive finishes of second and seventh at the Masters.

It's no secret that the 31-year-old has another gear for major championships. What he's done at majors compared to the rest of the field has been nothing short of remarkable. Since 2016, Koepka is 92-under par in majors, and no one in the field is within 40 shots of him.

With distance off the tee being potentially even more of a factor this year than in years past, that should only add to Koepka's advantage. I feel rather confident that he'll be involved down the stretch this week. If he can find a way to add a green jacket to his legacy, he will head to St. Andrews later this year with eyes on a career grand slam.

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Viktor Hovland (+2000)

Let’s get this out of the way: Viktor Hovland has a major weakness in his game, and it’s a weakness that isn’t conducive to success at Augusta National. His around-the-green game needs serious work, and the tight run-off areas here will be a real challenge for him.

While acknowledging the seemingly only flaw in his game, we must also acknowledge how good he is. The 24-year-old is an all-world talent who does everything else required to contend at Augusta. In his last five starts, he’s gaining an average of 4.4 strokes on approach, which is always the most important factor here. He’s long and straight off the tee and can ball-strike his way into contention.

Hovland has accomplished a great deal in a short amount of time as a professional, but he lacks a signature win. We’ve seen younger players accomplish much more than we thought possible in years past. I’m willing to overlook the short game flaws in hopes that his prodigious talent will outweigh his potential fatal flaw.

Adam Scott (+5500)

It could be argued that Adam Scott’s entire season revolves around going into major championships in good form. At this stage in his career, the only thing that really impacts his legacy is finding a way to win another major.

Scott is playing great golf at the moment, and Augusta National is clearly a great fit for his skill set considering he’s won the event (2013) and has four additional top-10 finishes at the Masters. He recently finished fourth at Riviera, which has been a strong indicator in the past of Augusta National success.

The 41-year-old did exactly what he needed to do in his most recent start at the WGC-Dell Match Play. He advanced out of his group before narrowly losing to Kevin Kisner in the Round of 16. He showed he was in great form but didn’t need to play two or three more rounds to put additional wear and tear on his body.

Augusta National has been lengthened a bit this year, and a lot of rain in March the fairways is likely to mean even less roll out than usual. Scott ranks 19th in the field in his past 36 rounds in Driving Distance, and his length will undoubtedly provide an advantage.

Scott has the current form, course history and knowledge and ideal skill set to contend for his second green jacket this week.

Sergio Garcia +8000

There are 17 golfers in Masters History who have won the tournament more than once. There is little doubt that Augusta National is one of the courses on TOUR where the importance of course history is inarguable. Garcia’s recent history at The Masters has been shaky to say the least, as he’s missed the cut in each of his three starts since winning the green jacket back in 2017.

However, in the outright market a missed cut pays the same as a top-10. The Spaniard is capable of taming Augusta National. His iron play this season hasn’t been what we are accustomed to with Sergio throughout his career, but he remains as good as ever off the tee.  He’s gaining 3.4 strokes on the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and ranks ninth on TOUR this season in distance to apex, which is always an important factor at Augusta.

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Props

Matt Fitzpatrick — Top 5 (+900)

Fitz comes into the week playing some of the best PGA TOUR golf of his career. He’s been remarkably consistent in 2022, with four top-10 finishes in his past five stroke-play starts. Fitzpatrick also was very impressive in the match play event and unfortunately ran into a red-hot Scott Scheffler.

The Englishman has some solid course history at The Masters and has made six consecutive cuts here, including a seventh-place finish as a 21-year-old. I question whether he can actually win because he hasn’t shown that he’s ready to do so at a major yet, but a high finish is most definitely in play.

Tommy Fleetwood — Top 5 (+1400)

Fleetwood has been a bit under the radar in both his recent form, as well as his form at Augusta National. 

In his past three starts on the PGA TOUR, Fleetwood has had finishes of 20th, 22nd and 16th. He also had a solid showing at the WGC-Dell Match Play and was the only player to defeat eventual champion Scottie Scheffler.

Fleetwood has also had some very encouraging results at the Masters. In his past four starts, he boasts two top-20 finishes. 

The fan favorite has been runner-up in both the U.S. Open (2018) and Open Championship (2019). There’s a chance his strong recent play could propel Fleetwood into major-championship contention once again. 

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