The biggest golf event of the year is upon us as the 86th Masters Tournament is set to get underway on Thursday. While almost all of the attention in the gambling world is focused on picking the outright winners, and of course Tiger Woods, there are some great Round 1 totals on PrizePicks to attack.
Iron play and scrambling are the two biggest indicators of success at Augusta based on the data of previous champions and should be used to narrow down the best bets for this tournament. We saw this trend in full effect last year as defending champion Hideki Matsuyama finished fourth in SG Approach the Green, fifth in SG Around the Green, second in SG Tee to Green, and sixth in Scrambling.
Below, I give out my five first-round PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Masters. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Dustin Johnson: Round 1 Over 70 Strokes
This number is just too low for a guy who is not swinging the clubs to his usual standard this season. Currently, Johnson ranks 174th on TOUR in SG Around the Green and 77th in Scrambling.
Last year at Augusta, Johnson shot a first-round 74 and has shot a 70 or higher in the first round in five of his last seven Masters appearances. Over his last five tournaments, Johnson's first-round average is 70.2, and that is playing at courses not nearly as difficult as Augusta.
I think this number is set too low due to his previous success at Augusta, and I would be surprised if he ended round one at -3 or better.
Xander Schauffele: Round 1 Under 70.5 Strokes
Xander Schauffele has developed into one of the best golfers on TOUR and is one of my four picks to win the whole tournament as he enters the Masters in great form. Schauffele has shot under 70.5 in the first round in 14 of his last 15 tournaments.
Currently the 10th-ranked golfer in the world, Schauffele's metrics suggest he is set up for a good run at a green jacket this year. This season, Schauffele ranks 38th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 49th in SG Around the Green, 16th in SG Tee to Green, and 36th in Scrambling.
Starting strong on a big stage has not scared Schauffele in his young career as he has gone under this first-round total in five of his last eight major championships.
Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 1 Under 71 Strokes
I mentioned in the Schauffele section how I have four guys to win the Masters this year, and Fitzpatrick is also one of those four golfers. Fitzpatrick has done well in getting off to good starts as he has shot a first-round 71 or better in nine of his last 12 tournaments.
Fitzpatrick has flown under the radar this year as the world's 24th-ranked golfer. This season, Fitzpatrick ranks 14th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 14th in SG Around the Green, fifth in SG Tee to Green, and fourth in Scrambling.
I am a big believer in "iron sharpens iron," and Fitzpatrick's first-round pairing is with Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy, which makes me like this play even more.
Abraham Ancer: Round 1 Over 71.5 Strokes
Based on Ancer's metrics this season, I would be shocked if he broke par in any round at Augusta. This season, Ancer ranks 117th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 191st in SG Around the Green, and 142nd in SG Tee to Green.
At last year's Masters, Ancer shot a first-round 75. Ancer has only played Augusta twice, and experience is incredibly important at the Masters.
Sergio Garcia: Round 1 Over 71.5 Strokes
Similar to Ancer, I would be shocked if Garcia breaks par in any round at Augusta based on his metrics. This season, Garcia ranks 189th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 130th in SG Around the Green, and 85th in SG Tee to Green.
We are getting good value on this number due to Garcia winning the 2017 Masters, but he is just not that golfer anymore. Garcia has missed the cut in all three Masters appearances since his win and has failed to break par in any of those six rounds.
This season should not be any different as Garcia has a first-round average of 72.3 over his last three tournaments.
