Round 1 of the Masters is now behind us, with Sungjae Im holding the lead at 5-under. We now look forward to Round 2 on Friday, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
I mentioned in my first-round analysis how iron play and scrambling are the two biggest indicators of success at Augusta National based on the data of previous champions. It should be used to narrow down the best picks for this tournament. We saw this trend in full effect last year, as defending champion Hideki Matsuyama finished fourth in SG Approach the Green, fifth in SG Around the Green, second in SG Tee to Green, and sixth in Scrambling.
Below, I outline my five PrizePicks flex plays for Round 2 of the 2022 Masters. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Masters Props
Tyrrell Hatton Under 71.5 Strokes
Hatton sits tied for 19th at even par heading into Friday. However, he leads the entire field in SG Tee to Green so far this tournament at +5.16. Hatton also ranks first in Scrambling and fifth in SG Approach the Green, two more key metrics for success at Augusta.
So why is Hatton in only 19th place?
The answer is his putter: He ranks dead-last in SG Putting after the first round. Hatton should see positive regression in Round 2 to make-up some ground, so shooting at least 1-under par is a very reasonable ask for Hatton.
Augusta is expected to see nasty wind around 3 p.m. ET, but Hatton should be off the course by then as his group tees off at 10:01 a.m. ET.
Collin Morikawa Under 71 Strokes
Morikawa is currently tied for 31st at +1, yet ranks 16th in the field in SG Tee to Green at +2.31. Much like Hatton, Morikawa was the victim of bad putting luck in Round 1 as he ranks 78th in the field in SG Putting at -1.50.
Over the past few years, Morikawa has had a love-hate relationship with his putter. That said, if he is bad with it one day, he is usually great with it the next.
In Round 1, Morikawa was excellent around the greens as he ranked 10th in the field in SG Around the Green. This metric indicates that he should be finding himself in good putting situations in Round 2.
Morikawa tees off at 10:12 a.m. ET, so he should also be off of the course by the time the strong wind hits Augusta.
Patrick Cantlay Under 71 Strokes
Cantlay is tied for seventh at 2-under heading into Friday and I believe he will have an even better day in Round 2. His Round 1 metrics indicate more success coming as he ranks eighth in SG Tee to Green and eighth in SG Approach the Green.
His putter, on the other hand, was not as sharp as the rest of his game: He ranks 32nd in SG Putting. If he drains a few more putts, he could propel himself into first place.
Like Morikawa and Hatton, Cantlay should beat the bad weather as he tees off at 10:23 a.m. ET.
Corey Conners Under 71 Strokes
Conners is tied with Cantlay for seventh at 2-under, and I like Conners to shoot up the standings along with Cantlay in Round 2. Currently, Conners ranks first in SG Around the Green, 15th in SG Approach the Green, fourth in SG Tee to Green, and fifth in Scrambling.
The only reason Conners is not in first place right now is poor putting as he currently ranks 53rd in SG Putting. Like the first three guys above, I believe the putting luck will positively regress to the mean and propel Conners further up the standings.
Also, like the previous three players, Conners should beat the wind as he tees off at 8:55 a.m. ET.
Abraham Ancer Over 72.5 Strokes
I correctly hit the Ancer over in Round 1, so I'm going back to the well in Round 2. It is a miracle that Ancer currently sits inside the top 20 at even par, and needing him to perform just one stroke worse on Friday shouldn't be a sweat.
Ancer's putting was on fire in Round 1 as he ranks fifth in SG Putting, however, that is not sustainable. The rest of Ancer's game was below-average as he ranks 89th in SG Around the Green, 66th in SG Tee to Green, and 55th in Scrambling.
Even if he just misses one-to-two extra putts, that is all It will take to push him over par in Round 2.
