The second round of the Masters is behind us, with Scottie Scheffler holding a five-shot lead at 8 under par after shooting a 67 on Friday at Augusta National. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, featuring plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
I mentioned in my first-round analysis how iron play and scrambling are the two biggest indicators of success at Augusta based on the data of previous champions. It should be used to narrow down the best picks for this tournament.
We saw this trend in full effect last year, with defending champion Hideki Matsuyama finishing fourth in SG Approach the Green; fifth in SG Around the Green; second in SG Tee to Green; and ,sixth in Scrambling.
Below, I outline my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five of five correct registers an 11x payout; four of five correct registers a 2x payout; and, three of five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Masters Props
Justin Thomas — Under 72 Strokes
Thomas sits tied for 10th at 1 under following his performance Friday, where he shot back up the leaderboard as he matched Scheffler's low round of 67. Thomas was feeling his game on the back nine , twirling his club practically after every shot, which was warranted as they were all pretty much perfect.
I think Thomas continues to make a run toward a top-five finish and will need another good effort Saturday to make that happen. After a 76 on Thursday, Thomas found his game again and got the results we expected from the pre-tournament betting favorite behind Jon Rahm.
Currently, Thomas ranks 10th among the remaining field in SG Approach the Green and eighth in Scrambling, which are two key metrics to success at Augusta as I mentioned earlier.
Viktor Hovland — Over 73 Strokes
Hovland currently sits tied for 45th at +4 following a second-round 76. His game really fell apart Friday and I don't think he will find It again at a course playing exceptionally difficult.
Hovland's opening-round 72 was inflated by his putting, as he ranks 10th in the remaining field in SG Putting. However, his score regressed to the mean Friday as the rest of his game has struggled mightily at this tournament. Currently, Hovland ranks 50th in SG Around the Green; 44th in SG Approach the Green; 51st in SG Tee to Green; and, 48th in Scrambling.
Hovland is near the bottom of the field in every key metric for success at Augusta, so it is likely Saturday is more similar to his second round.
Cameron Smith — Under 72.5 Strokes
Smith is tied for sixth at 2 under after Friday's round of 74. Smith caught a bad run of putting during the second round that I expect to turn around.
Currently, Smith ranks 42nd among the remaining field in SG Putting, However, the rest of his metrics indicate his game has been excellent off the green. Smith ranks first in SG Approach the Green and fourth in SG Tee to Green.
Smith was brilliant in the opening round, shooting a 68 despite two double-bogeys on the scorecard. We should see a bounce-back round here.
Bubba Watson — Over 73 Strokes
Watson has shot a 73 in each of the first two rounds and I don't see any reason why that should improve. Watson ranks 44th among the remaining field in SG Around the Green; 25th in SG Tee to Green; and, 50th in Scrambling.
Watson particularly struggled to end the second round, shooting a back-nine 39 with three bogeys and a double. This poor finish could drag into the start of his third round, in which case achieving an even-par round could be difficult.
Watson, now 43 years old, is not the same golfer he used to be and hasn't shot better than a 73 in five of his last seven rounds at Augusta.
Patrick Reed — Over 73 Strokes
Reed is tied for 38th at 3 over par. Like Watson, Reed hasn't cleared this number in either of his first two rounds at the tournament.
It's evident Reed's game is just not there and his putter has really saved him thus far. Realistically, Reed shouldn't have made the cut with how he has played.
Among the remaining field, Reed ranks last in SG Approach the Green; 30th in SG Around the Green; and, 46th in SG Tee to Green. If it wasn't for his putter, I'm not sure Reed would be playing this weekend and we are getting a good number for this round.
