Memorial Tournament 2022: Odds & Expert Picks for Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, More

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It was another week of close calls.

For a while, it looked like Davis Riley might steal one Sunday afternoon. But as he tends to do off the tee at the most inopportune time, he managed to spray a ball into a part of the golf course where no one had ventured all week. This time it was out of bounds, and the chance at victory evaporated. But he finished inside the top five, and Tony Finau did what he does best and backdoored a high finish, so the week wasn't a total loss.

Now we shift from Colonial to another one of the TOUR's more familiar destinations for the Memorial Tournament.

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The Course

Muirfield Village has been the host of the Memorial since 1976. It plays fairly long, clocking in at nearly 7,500 yards for a par 72.

The length may make people think distance will trump all, but the rough and water hazards still make precision off the tee important. Success has typically come from players with strong all-around games like Patrick Cantlay last year. Justin Rose and Hideki Matsuyama have also put together good track records here.

Those guys are all solid off the tee, but I wouldn’t really classify them as bombers. Even Matt Kuchar has figured out how to plot his way to a win and a handful of top-five finishes at Muirfield Village.

Distance helps as always but not at the expense of accuracy, and players usually need to find a happy medium between the two.

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The Favorites

Jon Rahm opens at the top here at +1000. Rahm won the event in 2020 and would likely have won again last year but was forced to withdraw with COVID while holding a six-shot lead going into the final round.

We've seen a couple of seven-shot comebacks the last two weeks, so Rahm's lead there wasn't entirely safe, but that sort of collapse is definitely the exception, not the norm. He got a win recently in Mexico, and this is clearly a good spot for him, so he'll be a tough favorite to take down.

Rory McIlroy is right behind at +1100. McIlroy hasn't really contended often here. His best finish was fourth in 2016, but he began that day five off the lead and played a solid final round to finish well. The form is solid. He's been inside the top 10 in his only three starts since the Masters. But at basically the same price as Rahm on a course that's never really been his best stop, it's not hard to look elsewhere this week.

Patrick Cantlay is the last one in this range at +1800 and is the defending champ, albeit with an asterisk from the Rahm situation. But Cantlay also won here in 2019 and has four top 10s on the course, so this has been one of his best spots on the TOUR. Cantlay hasn't been playing a ton recently. He lost to Jordan Spieth at the RBC Heritage in a playoff, then backed it up to win with Xander Schauffele at Zurich. But his only start in the past month was the missed cut at the PGA.

We have a large group in the +2000s including Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Hideki has a win here, and Morikawa won on this course in 2020 during the COVID season when it hosted back-to-back events, so they'll draw attention this week. Cam Smith has never played well here, missing the cut four times in six starts with no finish better than 65th.

Of this group, I'll actually be going with Xander Schauffele at +2200. Schauffele has followed up the team event win with a pair of strong results, finishing fifth at the Byron Nelson and 13th at the PGA.

Schauffele gained strokes in all four categories in both of those events, so the game should be in good shape across the board. He's also finished inside the top 15 in his last four starts on this course, so he's been solid here each year as well.

The best number on Schauffele is at bet365, and he's around 20-1 at most other books.

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The Mid-Tier

I'll open here with Max Homa at +4000 on BetRivers. We've seen wins come in bunches for guys like Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns this season. Homa hasn't been quite as prolific, but he's got three in his last 32 starts. Homa also finished sixth here a year ago. He's just kept on playing well since the Wells Fargo win, gaining almost seven shots on approach at the PGA and picking up ground in all categories last week at Colonial.

We'll also go to Patrick Reed at +6500 on DraftKings. It appears he's starting to figure things out again. He gained strokes in all categories for the first time since July 2021 at Colonial to finish seventh. He also gained a little over five strokes on approach at the PGA.

Reed's game has seemed off, but he's now made the cut in six of his last seven events, and with a top 10 result to go with it, he seems to be trending upward. He's also finished inside the top 10 on three occasions here including fifth a year ago.

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The Longshots

With Schauffele at the top, there's not really any more room for a longshot type play this week.

This hasn't really been a course to back the longer odds anyway. There was a two-year blip on the radar when William McGirt and David Lingmerth won in back-to-back years, but there wasn't much to show those two would pop up. Outside of that, it seems to be a course where the stronger players rise to the top.

The Memorial Card

• Xander Schauffele +2200 (1.5 units)
• Max Homa +4000 (.83 units)
• Patrick Reed +6500 (.5 units)

Total Stake: 2.83 units

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