Cameron Smith holds a one-shot lead and is 8-under after shooting a 69 on Friday at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five Round 3 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Memorial Tournament. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 7.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 1.5x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Under 11.5 Greens in Regulation
Cameron Smith currently sits in first place. That being said, he is not there due to his approach game and hitting greens.
In fact, Smith has gone under this total in each of the first two rounds. Amongst the remaining field, Smith ranks just 41st in SG: Approach-the-Green and 47th in Greens in Regulation.
Smith finds himself atop of the leaderboard at this juncture because of his putting and scrambling. Smith has been dynamite going up and down and attacking the flag from around the greens. He currently ranks 10th in SG: Putting, first in SG: Around-the-Green and fifth in Scrambling.
I would not play this number at anything lower than 11.5.
Billy Horschel: Round 3 Under 3.5 Birdies or Better
Billy Horschel presently sits T4 at 6-under par. After successfully hitting this prop in the first round, I am going back to the well.
Horschel hit four birdies in the second round, but I think it is more likely we see regression than a repeat performance. As I mentioned in my article earlier this week, three of the most important metrics with direct correlation to strong play at this course SG: Tee-to-Green, Scrambling and SG: Approach.
This season, Horschel ranks just 140th on TOUR in SG: Approach and 95th in Scrambling.
I would not play this total lower than 3.5.
Viktor Hovland: Round 3 Under 11.5 Greens in Regulation
Viktor Hovland is T39 after shooting an even-par 73 on Friday. Greens in regulation have been incredibly difficult to come by at this course relative to the season's average and I expect this trend to continue into the weekend.
Hovland went under this total in the first round and over it in the second. That being said, I am fading him Saturday.
Amongst the remaining field, Hovland ranks just 57th in SG: Approach and 56th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Those numbers do not correlate with his current position and regression could be looming on Saturday.
I would not play this number lower than 11.5.
Sungjae Im: Round 3 Under 71 Strokes
Sungjae Im, at 4-under par finds himself T13 after shooting a 70 on both Thursday and Friday. I do not see any reason to expect regression for Im on Saturday.
Amongst the remaining field, Im ranks ninth in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and 12th in Scrambling. His ranking in all three key metrics is lower than his current position and I could see him going lower than 70 on Saturday.
On TOUR this season, Im ranks 73rd, 10th and fourth, respectively, in those three metrics.
I would play this total down to 70.5.
Adam Scott: Round 3 Over 71 Strokes
Adam Scott is currently T57 at 2-over par after shooting a troubling 76 on Friday. While I do not think Scott will perform as poorly over the weekend, I do not think the confidence will be there to gain back five strokes on Saturday.
Scott ranks near the bottom in all the key metrics amongst the remaining field. He finds himself in 65th in SG: Around-the-Green, 39th in SG: Approach, 65th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 65th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 50th in Scrambling and 57th in SG: Total. While listing all of those may be a bit of overkill, it illuminates just how poor his play has been through the first two rounds.
I would play this number up to 71.5.
