Mexico Open 2022 First Round Leader Odds & Picks: Bet Emiliano Grillo, 3 More for FRL

When examining the first-round leader market for the Mexico Open, the first factor that should be considered is whether or not there is a morning/afternoon wave advantage.

In my conversation with tournament director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly, he was pretty adamant that the wind would pick up each day in the afternoon.

Currently, it looks like we will get about 8-10 mph of wind later in the day. While that isn't an extreme amount of wind, I do expect there to be a fairly significant wave advantage on Thursday with the early starters having the advantage. That advantage should be leveled out after Friday's round but for the first-round leader market it should be relevant. I would be sure to have at least a few AM starters on your FRL card.

I typically look to back longshots who I think fit the course well, and in many cases the same players I've already bet to win if they are close to triple-digit odds. Luckily, a few of my outright picks are morning starters on Thursday, so it makes perfect sense to go after them in both markets.

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Mexico Open First Round Leader Selections

Anirban Lahiri (+7000)

Lahiri is my favorite outright bet on the board, but his lack of history in converting hot starts to wins on the PGA TOUR, it makes plenty of sense to supplement that outright bet with an FRL bet, as well.

Lahiri ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum in his past 24 rounds. He has been playing on paspalum for a good deal of his career, including in a win at TPC Kuala Lumpur at the Indian Open.

Lahiri showed us at this year's PLAYERS Championship that he has the type of game that can start strong and continue to make birdies early in the tournament.

Danny Lee (+9000)

Danny Lee is the perfect golfer for an FRL bet. He's the type of guy when you check the leaderboard on Thursday, he may be either 6-under or 6-over through his first seven holes. That volatility is what makes Lee such an intriguing player to bet in this market.

Lee also happens to be an excellent fit for Vidanta Vallarta. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum and fourth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 50 rounds.

Lee has an 8:07 a.m. tee time and is a good candidate to get out of the gates in a hurry.

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Emiliano Grillo (+9000)

There's no way to sugarcoat this: Emiliano Grillo has been awful this season. Truth be told, if he hadn't been, he would most likely be priced in the 30-1 range this week.

Throughout his career, the 29-year-old has played far and away his best golf on coastal resort-type courses similar to Vidanta Vallarta. I don’t necessarily trust Grillo to have it going for all four rounds this week, but he’s certainly capable of a low round at a course where he should be incredibly comfortable.

Brice Garnett (+12500)

Garnett has five top-10 finishes on paspalum since 2018 including a win at the 2018 Corales Championship. If there is anyone who can find form quickly on paspalum greens, it's the 38-year-old.

Garnett's tie for seventh-place finish at last month's Puerto Rico open shows that he still has what it takes to go low for a round and he has a favorable tee time at 7:56 a.m.

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