Mexico Open 2022 First Round Leader Odds & Picks: Bet Emiliano Grillo, 3 More for FRL
Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Emiliano Grillo.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Mexico Open odds via PointsBet
2022 Mexico Open Odds
f1cmdm8q | Odds |
---|---|
Jon Rahm | +450 |
Abraham Ancer | +1700 |
Gary Woodland | +2000 |
Tony Finau | +2000 |
Kevin Na | +2500 |
Aaron Wise | +3000 |
Cameron Champ | +3000 |
Cameron Tringale | +3000 |
Patrick Reed | +3000 |
Sebastian Munoz | +3000 |
Chris Kirk | +3500 |
Aaron Rai | +5000 |
Adam Long | +5000 |
Brendon Todd | +5000 |
Charles Howell III | +5000 |
Doug Ghim | +5000 |
Kevin Streelman | +5000 |
Matt Jones | +5000 |
Russell Knox | +5000 |
Carlos Ortiz | +6000 |
Cheng-Tsung Pan | +6000 |
Davis Riley | +6000 |
Mark Hubbard | +6000 |
Sahith Theegala | +6000 |
Alex Smalley | +6600 |
Lanto Griffin | +6600 |
Taylor Moore | +6600 |
Anirban Lahiri | +7000 |
Chad Ramey | +7000 |
Scott Stallings | +7000 |
David Lipsky | +8000 |
JT Poston | +8000 |
Pat Perez | +8000 |
Patrick Rodgers | +8000 |
Wyndham Clark | +8000 |
Greyson Sigg | +9000 |
Kramer Hickok | +9000 |
Nate Lashley | +9000 |
Tyler Duncan | +9000 |
Adam Svensson | +10000 |
Austin Smotherman | +10000 |
Brandon Wu | +10000 |
Brian Stuard | +10000 |
Chase Seiffert | +10000 |
Hank Lebioda | +10000 |
Joseph Bramlett | +10000 |
Michael Thompson | +10000 |
Nick Taylor | +10000 |
Scott Piercy | +10000 |
Vaughn Taylor | +10000 |
Vincent Whaley | +10000 |
Adam Schenk | +12500 |
Andrew D. Putnam | +12500 |
Brice Garnett | +12500 |
Danny Lee | +12500 |
Dylan Wu | +12500 |
Emiliano Grillo | +12500 |
Graeme McDowell | +12500 |
Kiradech Aphibarnrat | +12500 |
Peter Uihlein | +12500 |
Rafael Cabrera Bello | +12500 |
Robert Streb | +12500 |
Ryan Armour | +12500 |
Andrew Novak | +15000 |
Ben Griffin | +15000 |
Ben Martin | +15000 |
Callum Tarren | +15000 |
Chez Reavie | +15000 |
James Hahn | +15000 |
John Huh | +15000 |
Justin Lower | +15000 |
Kurt Kitayama | +15000 |
Lee Hodges | +15000 |
Matt Wallace | +15000 |
Peter Malnati | +15000 |
Roger Sloan | +15000 |
Trey Mullinax | +15000 |
Aaron Baddeley | +20000 |
Bill Haas | +20000 |
Bo Hoag | +20000 |
Camilo Villegas | +20000 |
Hayden Buckley | +20000 |
Jason Dufner | +20000 |
Kevin Tway | +20000 |
Luke Donald | +20000 |
Patrick Flavin | +20000 |
Stephan Jaeger | +20000 |
Ben Kohles | +25000 |
Brandon Hagy | +25000 |
Curtis Thompson | +25000 |
Paul Barjon | +25000 |
Richy Werenski | +25000 |
Satoshi Kodaira | +25000 |
Scott Brown | +25000 |
Scott Gutschewski | +25000 |
Seung-yul Noh | +25000 |
Sung Kang | +25000 |
Wesley Bryan | +25000 |
Bryson Nimmer | +30000 |
David Skinns | +30000 |
Fabian Gomez | +30000 |
Jared Wolfe | +30000 |
Jonathan Byrd | +30000 |
Max McGreevy | +30000 |
Seth Reeves | +30000 |
Austin Cook | +35000 |
Michael Gligic | +35000 |
Ryan Blaum | +35000 |
Brett Drewitt | +40000 |
David Hearn | +40000 |
David Lingmerth | +40000 |
Grayson Murray | +40000 |
Joshua Creel | +40000 |
Robert Garrigus | +40000 |
Roberto Diaz | +40000 |
Sang-Moon Bae | +40000 |
Tommy Gainey | +40000 |
Alvaro Ortiz | +50000 |
Armando Favela | +50000 |
Ben Crane | +50000 |
Ben Willman | +50000 |
Bo Van Pelt | +50000 |
D.J. Trahan | +50000 |
Darren Andrew Points | +50000 |
Dawie Van Der Walt | +50000 |
Greg Chalmers | +50000 |
Isidro Benitez | +50000 |
Jeffrey Kang | +50000 |
Jim Knous | +50000 |
Johnson Wagner | +50000 |
Jonas Blixt | +50000 |
Juan Cristobal Islas | +50000 |
Kelly Kraft | +50000 |
Manuel Inman | +50000 |
Mark Hensby | +50000 |
Martin Trainer | +50000 |
Matt Every | +50000 |
Ricky Barnes | +50000 |
Santiago de la Fuente | +50000 |
Turk Pettit | +50000 |
Arjun Atwal | +50000 |
Derek Ernst | +50000 |
Richard S. Johnson | +50000 |
When examining the first-round leader market for the Mexico Open, the first factor that should be considered is whether or not there is a morning/afternoon wave advantage.
In my conversation with tournament director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly, he was pretty adamant that the wind would pick up each day in the afternoon.
Currently, it looks like we will get about 8-10 mph of wind later in the day. While that isn't an extreme amount of wind, I do expect there to be a fairly significant wave advantage on Thursday with the early starters having the advantage. That advantage should be leveled out after Friday's round but for the first-round leader market it should be relevant. I would be sure to have at least a few AM starters on your FRL card.
I typically look to back longshots who I think fit the course well, and in many cases the same players I've already bet to win if they are close to triple-digit odds. Luckily, a few of my outright picks are morning starters on Thursday, so it makes perfect sense to go after them in both markets.
Mexico Open First Round Leader Selections
Anirban Lahiri (+7000)
Lahiri is my favorite outright bet on the board, but his lack of history in converting hot starts to wins on the PGA TOUR, it makes plenty of sense to supplement that outright bet with an FRL bet, as well.
Lahiri ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum in his past 24 rounds. He has been playing on paspalum for a good deal of his career, including in a win at TPC Kuala Lumpur at the Indian Open.
Lahiri showed us at this year's PLAYERS Championship that he has the type of game that can start strong and continue to make birdies early in the tournament.
Danny Lee (+9000)
Danny Lee is the perfect golfer for an FRL bet. He's the type of guy when you check the leaderboard on Thursday, he may be either 6-under or 6-over through his first seven holes. That volatility is what makes Lee such an intriguing player to bet in this market.
Lee also happens to be an excellent fit for Vidanta Vallarta. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on paspalum and fourth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 50 rounds.
Lee has an 8:07 a.m. tee time and is a good candidate to get out of the gates in a hurry.
![](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/Pointsbet%402x-300x169.png)
Emiliano Grillo (+9000)
There's no way to sugarcoat this: Emiliano Grillo has been awful this season. Truth be told, if he hadn't been, he would most likely be priced in the 30-1 range this week.
Throughout his career, the 29-year-old has played far and away his best golf on coastal resort-type courses similar to Vidanta Vallarta. I don’t necessarily trust Grillo to have it going for all four rounds this week, but he’s certainly capable of a low round at a course where he should be incredibly comfortable.
Brice Garnett (+12500)
Garnett has five top-10 finishes on paspalum since 2018 including a win at the 2018 Corales Championship. If there is anyone who can find form quickly on paspalum greens, it's the 38-year-old.
Garnett's tie for seventh-place finish at last month's Puerto Rico open shows that he still has what it takes to go low for a round and he has a favorable tee time at 7:56 a.m.
![](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/09/Caesars-300x169.png)
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