Will Zalatoris currently holds a one-shot lead at 9-under par after shooting a 65 on Friday at Southern Hills.
Now we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my four Round 3 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 PGA Championship. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the four plays below, getting four-of-four correct registers a 5x payout, while three-of-four correct registers a 1.5x payout.
PGA Championship Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Justin Thomas: Round 3 Under 70.5 Strokes
Thomas currently sits in third place at 8-under par after shooting a 67 on Friday. JT has now shot a 67 in each of the first two rounds, and while regression may strike on Saturday, I think four strokes is too much of an adjustment.
I mentioned in my article earlier this week that SG Tee to Green and SG Approach the Green would be two important metrics to keep an eye on for this tournament. JT certainly fits that mold, as he currently ranks 10th amongst the field in both SG Tee to Green and SG Approach the Green.
This season, JT ranks third on TOUR in SG Tee to Green and fifth in SG Approach the Green. With plenty of major championship experience, I am not worried about JT facing more pressure on the weekend.
I would play this number down to 70.
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Under 9 Fairways Hit
Smith is currently tied for 10th place at 2-under par after shooting a 70 on Friday. While Smith is one of the sharpest players in the sport, his driving game is by far the aspect that needs the most improvement.
On TOUR this season, Smith ranks just 143rd in SG Off the Tee and 150th in Driving Accuracy. While Smith hit 11-of-14 fairways in Round 1, he regressed back to the mean in Round 2, as he hit just eight fairways.
Based on his stats this season, I think it is more likely that Smith has a similar performance with his driver to Round 2 rather than Round 1. The total sitting at 9 is an overreaction to Thursday's outing.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 9.
Tiger Woods: Round 3 Over 74 Strokes
Woods is currently tied for 53rd place at 3-over par after shooting a 69 on Friday to make the cut. While everyone — including me — is rooting for Tiger and is ecstatic that he made the cut, this is a number that should be taken.
Overcoming all of the hurdles that it took to just partake in this tournament, it is already a victory for Tiger just to compete. That being said, we saw the same story play out at the Masters when Tiger battled to make the cut and then fell apart during the weekend.
I expect a similar storyline at Southern Hills, as fatigue will probably catch up to Tiger, someone who has been laboring just to walk 18 holes. After making the cut at Augusta, Tiger shot a 78 in each of the weekend rounds.
I would not play this number at anything higher than 74.
Rory McIlroy: Round 3 Over 71 Strokes
McIlroy is currently tied for fifth place at 4-under par after leading the field before the start of Round 2. Shooting a 71 on Friday, I expect a similar performance on Saturday.
In this tournament, McIlroy ranks just 55th in SG Approach the Green, and that shaky iron/wedge play could come back to bite him during the weekend. We have seen this story play out this season, as McIlroy ranks just 66th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green.
I would not play this total if it moves above 71.
