2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds, Picks: Target Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey in Matchups

We hit on our lone matchup last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as Chris Kirk cruised to a seven-shot victory over Si Woo Kim at Bay Hill. We touched on Kirk’s recent stretch of great play and excellent history at Bay Hill as reasons to believe he would best Kim.

We’ll look to continue the momentum this week for one of my favorite events of the year: THE PLAYERS Championship.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the PLAYERS Championship. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

Jordan Spieth (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings)

My line: -122

I’d consider this pick as more of a fade of Fleetwood than a ringing endorsement of Spieth. Fleetwood has really been struggling for the better part of a calendar year, with only one top-10 finish on the PGA TOUR since March 2021.

The consistent play from tee to green that we grew accustomed to from Fleetwood has fallen off sharply in recent months. He ranks 69th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in this field over the last 50 rounds and 92nd over the last 12 rounds.

Spieth, on the other hand has six top-10 finishes over the past year and has shown some steady ball-striking improvement of late. He ranks 22nd in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 12 rounds.

My model ranks Fleetwood as the 80th-best player in this field, with Spieth at No. 47. So again, this isn’t a ringing endorsement of the American in this matchup, but my model gives a strong enough edge that I’ll be backing him against Fleetwood.

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Paul Casey (-102) over Si Woo Kim (FanDuel)

My line: -132

While both Casey and Kim have had extremely successful PGA TOUR careers, I don’t think there’s any doubt as to who the better (and more consistent) player is.

Casey has been one of the game’s most consistent ball strikers for quite some time. He ranks 7th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 100 rounds and 11th over the last 24.

In those time frames, Kim ranks 92nd and 95th in that category.

This matchup won’t be a walk in the park for Casey, though, given Kim’s recent results and history at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo has made the cut in nine straight events and in all five of his starts at THE PLAYERS, including his win back in 2017.

Still, though, my model weighs a player’s entire body of work. Casey is the better player, and I’ll be backing his ball-striking consistency to outperform Kim’s recent stretch of play in this matchup.

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