Updated 2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds & Picks: Jon Rahm, Jason Day Have Value Entering Weekend

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Unfortunately, the main story on Thursday at TPC Sawgrass was the weather, as a rain delay stopped play for just over four hours in the opening round after an hour delay to start the day. Players were immediately delayed before a shot was hit in the first round and when they finally took the course, a longer delay was in store. They got back on the course to play at 3:15 p.m. local time, which allowed all but one group of the morning wave to get their entire round in on Thursday.

The afternoon wave became the evening wave as two sets of tee times didn't even get to hit a shot. The first two rounds will not be completed by Friday and will lag into Saturday, with the only real question being about how much of the round will need to be finished on the weekend. It will also bring into play and seems fairly likely we could be in store for a Monday finish as the weather Friday doesn't look good either.

While the weather put a damper on the day overall, when the players did get some golf in there was some soft, scoreable conditions. Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Hoge took the most advantage as they both posted 6-under 66s to close the day with the lead. Four players, led by Joaquin Niemann and Keith Mitchell, shot 5-under opening rounds. The "morning wave" averaged nearly a full stroke under par on the day, and several of the big names with late tee times got off to hot starts before darkness stopped them.

Since we don't have much to lean on from a Strokes Gained perspective, I will just focus on some live best bets going into Friday. The big unknown is certainly the weather all the way into Saturday, which then has high winds, so we just want to try to find some opportunities to find an edge to as they close out the first round.

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Best Bets

Editor's note: Pick write-ups as of Thursday night.

Jon Rahm +1400

Throwing some of the weather scenarios out the window, it's a bit of a shock to see Jon Rahm at a price higher than where he closed before teeing off on Thursday. I honestly don't know what to make of that unless the books just see such a weather disadvantage for this first group that they're willing to essentially throw them aside in favor of the other wave.

If you think that is the case, you could certainly wait to see things play out, as no matter what happens there is going to be nearly 36 holes of golf from the big names on the course before he hits another shot. We could see his odds drift further or if there are struggles, it could also shrink his odds.

Rahm wasn't his normal ball striking self in the opening round, as he lost 0.84 shots to the field on approach at this stage in the game. He also continued to struggle around the greens, which has been an under-covered aspect of his issues lately. The good side of his day is that despite those struggles he still shot 3-under, currently three shots back, and he also gained more than two shots with the putter.

It's great to see a good day finally on the greens for the Spaniard and I feel really comfortable that the irons will bounce back in a hurry whenever he tees it up again. Rahm has been better at this event than his results indicate, and he's right there once again despite some lackluster play on approach.

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Jason Day +4000

One player I wanted to add to my card to start the week — but just never quite pulled the trigger on — was Jason Day. He is coming into the week with a heavy heart after losing his mom last week, which led to his withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

While it is just a few holes of a sample, he seems to have brought his game with him to TPC Sawgrass as he is 2-under through his first four holes. This is a course where he has won before back in 2016. He knows this course and really is a great fit for it, especially if he brought the strong iron play that he showed back at the Farmers in January.

Day's odds have dropped quite a bit from open, but he's still viable in this range for what could turn into the story of the week if he can contend.

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Cameron Young — First Round Leader +7500 (DraftKings)

The first group off in the second wave included one of the stories of the early part of 2022 in Cameron Young. He, Russell Henley and Thomas Pieters all made it through six holes before the horn blew due to darkness and they are all 2-under on their rounds.

I think you could look to any of them for a potential First Round Leader bet as they will have the least amount of golf to play in what could be a day with some starting and stopping on Friday. I'll lean toward Young in part because of the great form and scoring ability he has shown lately, but also due to the potential odds value.

Young is listed on DraftKings at +7500 while Henley is better than half of that at +2000. I don't think there is a ton of merit to that gap in pricing and I do like that this group has gotten through the majority of a stretch of holes that played just over par on Thursday. They will need to navigate the difficult 7th, but then roll into a scoring stretch of holes 9-12 where they can quickly get some momentum to challenge the 6-under rounds posted by Fleetwood and Hoge.

Several other books have Young in the +2000 range to be First Round Leader, which really solidifies the value we are getting on the former Wake Forrest player to close out his first round strong.

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