CHARLOTTE, N.C — Surprise, surprise. We’ve actually got a ballgame heading into the final day of the Presidents Cup.
That wasn’t always a given.
Led by the emotionally charged Tom Kim, the International side produced a strong showing in Saturday’s two sessions and cut the deficit, though the United States team still leads, 11-7, entering Sunday’s singles format.
There’s an old theory in these team competitions: The team trailing front-loads its lineup, while the team leading tries to save some of the big guns for an “in case of emergency, break glass” situation.
That wasn’t completely the case here, though. The admittedly strong U.S. squad led off with the two players who are 4-0-0 so far this week, while the Internationals saved their biggest sparkplug for later in the lineup.
Let’s break down each of the dozen singles matches for Sunday at Quail Hollow.
Match 19: Justin Thomas (USA) vs. Si Woo Kim (INTL)
U.S. captain Davis Love III obviously wants some momentum right off the bat and is leading with the fiery Thomas, but it’s a little surprising that Love's counterpart, Trevor Immelman, went with this Kim instead of the other one.
The pick: Thomas (-200)
He’s been a man on a mission this week. Even if Jordan Spieth did more damage in their partnered matches Saturday, Thomas looks like a guy who’s ready to take on the whole International team by himself. He’ll do what it takes to win this one.
Match 20: Jordan Spieth (USA) vs. Cam Davis (INTL)
There have been plenty of Spiethian moments over the past few days, but his magic will be put to the test against a guy who looks like he could use this week as a springboard for bigger success very soon.
The pick: Davis (+13)
Tough call here. It’ll be close, but after pairing with “hero” Adam Scott, Davis seems to be brimming with confidence. Take the underdog in a match that could/should go the distance.
Match 21: Sam Burns (USA) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (INTL)
Strangely enough, Burns is the only player besides Thomas and Spieth who will play all five sessions this week. Even stranger, he’s 0-3-1 so far, claiming only a half-point in those four matches.
The pick: Burns (-120)
That’s not even the strangest part. No, the strangest part is Burns has actually played very well despite being winless. Expect a little regression to the mean with his first victory in this one.
Match 22: Patrick Cantlay (USA) vs. Adam Scott (INTL)
He’s got a pretty solid poker face, so we never quite know exactly what Scott is thinking, but it’s easy to believe the team’s elder statesman might be having more fun hanging with the young kids than he’s had on many other teams. He seems refreshed and as motivated as we’ve seen him in a long time.
The pick: Draw
Even all that motivation can only get Scott a half-point against one of the world’s best players. You just know Cantlay is itching to get back out there after (finally) losing a match with buddy Xander Schauffele.
Match 23: Scottie Scheffler (USA) vs. Sebastian Munoz (INTL)
It’s been a week to forget for the world’s No. 1-ranked player, who is 0-2-1, hit an ugly-looking shank and was benched Saturday afternoon.
The pick: Scheffler (-190)
I’d expect this to be a popular spot for bettors to find value in the underdog, but I also can’t get past Scheffler’s rousing victory over Jon Rahm at last year’s Ryder Cup. Some players tend to look a little lost without a buddy after the partnered matches, Scheffler could be one who feels more comfortable once he’s back on his own.
Match 24: Tony Finau (USA) vs. Taylor Pendrith (INTL)
Poor Pendrith. If Burns is the player on the U.S. squad who hasn’t gotten the most out of his performance so far, then the Canadian might hold that distinction for the International side.
The pick: Pendrith (+135)
It pains me — really — to pick against Finau here. In most circumstances, I wouldn’t even consider it, but I think the golf gods have a little something in store for Pendrith, who’s on this team because his game fits the course so well.
Match 25: Xander Schauffele (USA) vs. Corey Conners (INTL)
This is a matchup between two guys who weren’t exactly pleased with themselves on Saturday night, though Schauffele’s frustration was based on just one day, while Conners’ has lasted throughout the week.
The pick: Schauffele (-170)
One of the game’s better iron players, it’s been jarring to watch Conners hit it so poorly this week. I’d give him a better chance against a few other American players, but Schauffele is too tough of an out.
Match 26: Cameron Young (USA) vs. Sungjae Im (INTL)
While I expect Young’s distance off the tee to be an advantage, Im isn’t intimidated by much and should be able to stick with his own game here.
The pick: Im (-125)
Another match where we shouldn’t expect too many mistakes. This could go the distance and I’ll give the slight edge to Im, who’s playing some solid golf right now.
Match 27: Billy Horschel (USA) vs. K.H. Lee (INTL)
Before the matchups were announced, Spieth suggested Horschel wanted Tom Kim and it appears Love held off as long as he could until announcing him for this one. Instead of two fiery dudes, we’ll see him against the man whose goal is to be the sexiest golfer on the planet.
The pick: Lee (+115)
We’ve waited so long for Horschel to get a chance in this type of competition, but it seems like he’s pressing too hard, wants it too bad and isn’t completely comfortable with his game. Lee, meanwhile, is a better player than most people realize.
Match 28: Max Homa (USA) vs. Tom Kim (INTL)
Unlike the night before the first session, when the five matches took four minutes to be announced, this took nearly 30 minutes, as Immelman was very obviously saving his human ball of energy for a specific match, offering up Kim’s name nearly immediately after Love announced Homa.
The pick: Kim (+120)
This is the Match of the People, as two of the more popular guys will go head-to-head in what should be an epic battle. There’s gotta be a reason, though, that the stats-driven International team wanted this matchup for Kim. I’ll trust them that it was the right decision.
Match 29: Collin Morikawa (USA) vs. Mito Pereira (INTL)
It doesn’t take much sleuthing to realize which players are at the end of Immelman’s bench right now, as Pereira and Christiaan Bezuidenhout each sat out both sessions on Saturday, then were placed as the final two in Sunday’s lineup.
The pick: Morikawa (-145)
Even though the usually solid Morikawa hasn’t looked like himself this week, I’m not sure there’s a player I wouldn’t pick to beat Pereira, who hasn't looked comfortable after a poor past few months to close the season.
Match 30: Kevin Kisner (USA) vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (INTL)
Just imagine if this entire thing comes down to the presumed 12th man on each roster, with the title hanging in the balance of this final match. That would be — let’s just say — unforeseen.
The pick: Bezuidenhout (-110)
The more likely scenario is that the overall result is done by this point and Kisner’s thoughts are geared more toward celebrating with his team and his impending hunting trip than beating Bezuidenhout. That could offer up some value in this one.
