The biggest event of the fall season is upon us, as the Americans and Internationals get ready to square off for the Presidents Cup from Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC.
The USA side comes in as a heavy favorite — up to -715 at many sportsbooks — as the Internationals were decimated by the latest defections to LIV, which included World No. 2 Cameron Smith and Joaquin Niemann.
That will leave the Internationals with a whole bunch of rookies this week, which also opens the door for some unknowns.
We may get some hints on pairings in the press conferences, with the official announcement of the first matches for Thursday morning foursomes coming at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
That will be the first clear picture of the starting plan, and will cause some odds to shift in the prop markets.
Our knowledge of prior team events — especially on the American side — may help us as we look to take advantage of opening odds this week.
Here's where I will look as we head into the Presidents Cup.
Presidents Cup Best Bets
USA -700 (BetMGM)
Do you like free money? I know I do, and while I hate long odds like this, it is really, really difficult to see a scenario in which the Internationals compete this week.
We can't even rely on the old "it's golf, anything can happen" argument because there are too many top players involved.
The American side has five of the top-10 players in the world, while the top-ranked player for the Internationals, Hideki Matsuyama, is 17th and is dealing with a neck injury and is in poor form.
They have also set up the course to be tailored to the long hitters of the USA, with short rough to allow the players to bomb and gauge their way to the title.
All of this sets up for the International side needing a "Miracle on Ice" type of upset here, and I just don't see it.
I'll eat the crazy price and take the free money on the other side.
Patrick Cantlay Top USA Points Scorer +650 (DraftKings)
Trying to find value on the American side is a tough task, but at least we have some idea of how they will set things up this week.
Until we get the first set of matches on Wednesday afternoon, we are just speculating on the Internationals, so I won't try to go that route without more information.
The one thing we seemingly know for sure is that Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele will be paired up — likely in every session — if this stays close. They just won the Zurich Classic together and have shown to be a formidable team, which will have them as strong favorites in every match they play.
I'll take the better odds on Cantlay, but you could actually bet both players, as there is a good chance they end up with the same number of points.
Barring something unforeseen, this battle is going to come down to Sunday singles. I think Cantlay could end up getting the lesser matchup.
Billy Horschel Top USA Captain's Pick Points Scorer +900 (DraftKings)
I'm going to take a longshot here with Billy Horschel, who we know is a great match-play golfer.
He's making his long-awaited debut for the Americans, something that has been a dream and goal of his throughout his lengthy career.
I expect he will also get one of the best setups to be successful this week, as he is likely paired with his two-time Zurich Classic partner Sam Burns.
That comfort and familiarity will set them up to be successful and may give them a leg up to stick together for four matches (some others in this category likely only play three).
He should close the week as a solid favorite in his Sunday singles match, and we know he will thrive in that setting.
Horschel will need some help — both from Captain Love and maybe from the International side — in this market, but I think there is a path for him to have value at these odds.
