Wyndham Clark holds a one-shot lead at 7-under par after shooting a 70 on Friday at St. George's Golf and Country Club. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five Round 3 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Over 12 Greens in Regulation
Cameron Smith sits T56 at 1-over par after shooting a 65 on Friday. Smith was his normal self on Friday after a disastrous start to the tournament on Thursday, which is why I think we are getting a generous number on this total.
While Smith only hit 11 of 18 greens in Round 1, he bounced back in Round 2 and hit 14 of 18 greens. His metrics took a massive leap in Round 2, which aligns more with the dominant golfer that he is.
Amongst the field in Round 1, Smith ranked just 65th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 101st SG: Tee-to-Green. In Round 2, Smith ranked fifth and third, respectively in those two metrics.
It is also a massive benefit for this prop that Smith tees off early in the morning, as the afternoon golfers are expected to play their entire round under the threat of rain.
I would not play this number at anything higher than 12.
Justin Thomas: Round 3 Over 12 Greens in Regulation
Another golfer who will play at least the first half of his round before the rain is Justin Thomas. Thomas sits T21 at 2-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
After going over this figure in each of the first two rounds, I do not expect to see regression from Thomas on Saturday. Amongst the remaining field, Thomas ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Greens in Regulation.
This season, Thomas ranks 21st on TOUR in Greens in Regulation.
I would play this total up to 12.5.
Corey Conners: Round 3 Over 12 Greens in Regulation
The last golfer I am backing in this category is Corey Conners. Currently, Conners sits T45 at even-par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
Like Cameron Smith, Conners had a much better second round and improved in every metric across the board. While Conners only hit 11 greens in the first round, he hit 13 in the second.
Conners should also beat the bad weather as he tees off in the morning. This season, Conners ranks fourth on TOUR in Greens in Regulation.
I would not play this number higher than 12.
Tony Finau: Round 3 Over 68.5 Strokes
Tony Finau currently sits T16 at 3-under par after shooting a 71 on Friday. Finau saw some regression Friday as he shot a 66 Thursday — a score I do not believe he will post again in this tournament.
On Thursday, Finau ranked third amongst the field in SG: Approach-the-Green and third in SG: Tee-to-Green. These numbers completely flipped on Friday as he ranked just 110th and 92nd, respectively in those two categories.
To make matters worse for Finau, he will not tee off until about 11:30 a.m. and will spend the majority of his round in the rain.
I would play this total up to 69.
Rory McIlroy: Round 3 Under 4.5 Birdies or Better
Another golfer I am fading in Round 3 is Rory McIlroy, who is T2 at 6-under par after shooting a 68 on Friday.
McIlroy went over this total in the first round, but under it in the second and I think he goes under it once again in Round 3. McIlroy's metrics suggest regression is looming as he ranks just 37th amongst the remaining field in SG: Around-the-Green, 49th in SG: Approach-the-Green, and 32nd in SG: Tee-to-Green.
The two aspects of his game which have saved McIlroy thus far are his putting and scrambling, as he ranks second and third, respectively in those categories. I would not be shocked if he regresses slightly in each of those as he ranks 52nd in SG: Putting and 41st in Scrambling on TOUR this season.
Like Tony Finau, McIlroy has the disadvantage of playing the majority of his round in the rain tomorrow.
I would not play this number any lower than 4.5.
