Tony Finau and Rory McIlroy are currently tied for the lead at 11-under par after the third round at St. George's Golf and Country Club. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 RBC Canadian Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Justin Thomas: Round 4 Over 12.5 Greens in Regulation
After successfully hitting this prop Saturday, I am going back to the well once again. Justin Thomas is currently T3 at 9-under par after shooting a 63 on Saturday.
Thomas was an absolute weapon on the course on Saturday and has now gone over this total in each of the first three rounds. I do not expect to see regression from Thomas on Sunday.
Amongst the remaining field, Thomas ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in SG: Tee-to-Green, and second in Greens in Regulation. This season, Thomas ranks 21st on TOUR in Greens in Regulation.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 12.5.
Corey Conners: Round 4 Over 12 Greens in Regulation
I am taking another prop we hit on in the third round as Corey Conners hit 13 Greens in Regulation on Saturday. Conners is T19 at 4-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday.
Going over this total in each of the past two rounds, Conners should be a good candidate to do so once again on Sunday. Improving in each day of this tournament, Conners' metrics have positively regressed as he has climbed the rankings in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green in each round.
This season, Conners ranks fourth on TOUR in Greens in Regulation.
I would not play this number higher than 12.
Cameron Smith: Round 4 Over 12 Greens in Regulation
The last golfer I am backing in this category is Cameron Smith. Smith is T41 at 1-under par after shooting a 68 on Saturday.
We pushed on this prop in the third round and should have a good opportunity to at least do the same on Sunday. Those who watched Smith on Saturday know how close he was to getting over this number on multiple occasions and his positive regression should continue Sunday after a poor start to the tournament.
As the tournament has gone on, Smith has improved in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. Hitting 12 or more Greens in Regulation in each of the past two rounds, Smith should be able to close this tournament strong and reach this number once again.
I would not play this total higher than 12.
Scottie Scheffler: Round 4 Under 12.5 Greens in Regulation
The world's number one golfer, Scottie Scheffler, is T29 at 3-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday. Scheffler was on his way to mounting a comeback when he was making the turn in the third round before his game fell apart on the 11th hole.
Scheffler bogeyed four of the final eight holes and plummeted back down the leaderboard. Momentum is certainly not on Scheffler's side as he enters the final round and he could be a good fade candidate.
Scheffler only hit 11 Greens in Regulations on Saturday and has gone under this total twice in this tournament. His metrics took a massive dip across the board on Saturday, and with a disappointing back nine to end his round, he could struggle to get momentum back on Sunday.
I would play this number down to 12.
Chris Kirk: Round 4 Over 68.5 Strokes
Chris Kirk is currently T9 at 6-under par after shooting a 66 on Saturday. Based on his metrics, Kirk should be due for some regression in the fourth and final round.
Despite sitting in ninth place, Kirk ranks just 36th in SG: Putting, 38th in SG: Around-the-Green, 17th in SG: Approach the Green, 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green. While some of these metrics are solid, every single one puts him lower than his current position on the leaderboard.
Kirk shot a 69 in each of the first two rounds, which are results more consistent with his overall game than the 66 he shot on Saturday.
I would not play this total any higher than 68.5.
