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We came fairly close to our first outright win last week with Max Homa, but some untimely double bogeys took him out of the tournament. It didn't help that Billy Horschel ran away from the field on Saturday and was able to coast to a victory on Sunday at Muirfield Village.
We are in a strange spot in the schedule, as the Memorial Tournament was last week and the U.S. Open is next week. There are a lot of big names in the field for this week's RBC Canadian Open, but the field really drops off after the first 10 names. I can't remember a week where there was only one golfer priced in the 20s and no golfers priced in the 40s. We essentially have eight big favorites up top and then a bunch of longshots.
As far as the course goes, we haven't seen St. George's Golf and Country Club on the PGA TOUR since 2010. There's no point in looking at course history because so much has changed since then — the equipment, the style of golf played, and even the course. With no course history to rely on, it's anyone's guess as to how easy or difficult the course is going to play this week.
Here's what we do know — the course is a par-70 that features three par fives and that measures just over 7,000 yards. Par adjusted, this will be one of the shortest courses in the PGA TOUR rotation this season.
There has reportedly been a lot of rain in the area this week, so the course should be fairly soft the first two days of play. On the weekend, we could have more rain on Saturday and there is very little wind in the forecast. I personally see this playing out as a birdie-fest where all types of golfers can contend.
Favorite Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
For our best bets, I wrote up Chris Kirk to win at +5000. Rather than regurgitating the same information here, I am going with Fitzpatrick at +1800. For the record, I am betting both this week.
Fitzpatrick missed the cut last week, but that was a complete anomaly. He's one of the best putters on tour and he lost over seven strokes putting. If anything, I'm encouraged by his tee-to-green numbers (+6.5 strokes on the field). He's turned into an excellent driver of the ball, he has an elite short game (most of the time), and he has gained on approach in 10 straight events.
Fitzpatrick has yet to pick up a win on the PGA TOUR, but it feels like it's only a matter of time. He picked up seven victories during his time on the European Tour.
Favorite Longshot: Brendon Todd +8000
I haven't seen Todd on many betting cards this week, but I'm happy to be on Todd Island. I'm sure I could make room for more if any of you want to accompany me.
Todd has always been known for his ability to do two things well: hit fairways and make putts. In fact, he's top three in this field in driving accuracy and strokes gained putting. He has quietly gained on approach in five of his last six starts and he has always played his best on shorter courses. He's also coming off of a third place finish at a similar layout at Colonial Country Club.
I'm betting Todd outright and am backing up that bet with a top five and a top 20.
