The PGA TOUR returns to the RBC Canadian Open for the first time in three years this week, with five of the world’s top-10 players in the field this week. St. George’s Golf & Country Club is a shorter track, although its thick rough and required precision should be a good tuneup for the US Open.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I’ve found value in backing two players in the props market this week at St. George’s. Both are strong on approach and should thrive on this shorter track in Canada.
Let’s get to it.
Matt Fitzpatrick — Top 20 (-115)
Going back to the well with Fitzpatrick this week.
The Englishman came through as predicted on all the major talking points I laid out in this article last week. He hit over 70% of his fairways and ranked seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in two rounds at Memorial.
Unfortunately, he paired his wonderful tee-to-green play with the worst putting performance of his entire career, losing 7.5 strokes on the greens en route to a missed cut.
St. George’s will be set up in a relatively similar fashion this week. While it won’t play as long as Muirfield Village, there are many reports that the course is being set up as a “U.S. Open prep” given where it has landed on the PGA TOUR schedule. You can bet there will be thick rough awaiting any wayward tee shots, placing a premium on accuracy from tee to green.
This sets up perfectly for Fitzpatrick, who ranks first in this field in Bogey Avoidance, while also ranking top 30 in both Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds.
Fitzpatrick is a solid and reliable player from tee to green who should be able to find success on this type of layout. Assuming his putting performance last week was an anomaly, I love his chances of cracking the top 20 this week.
Brendon Todd — Top 20 (+270)
This is one I didn’t expect to be writing up upon first glance at the odds board, but became more clear as I dove deeper into my prep for St. George’s.
As mentioned above, I believe the course is going to be set up to severely penalize inaccurate shots this week. Todd ranks second in this field in driving accuracy, hitting an incredible 72% of his fairways over the last 12 months. He’s gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts and ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass greens over the last 100 rounds.
Todd has also shown consistent success on shorter courses, ranking eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 100 rounds on courses measuring under 7,200 yards.
Coming off a third-place finish in his last start at Colonial, there are a lot of signs that point toward Todd having another good showing this week in Ontario. At a solid +270 offering, I believe he’s worth the gamble to crack the top 20.
