Harold Varner III holds a one-shot lead at 11-under par after shooting a 63 on Saturday at Harbour Town. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, featuring plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
I mentioned in my first-round analysis how there are four strong indicators of success at this tournament: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green and scrambling. We saw this trend in full effect last year, as defending champion Stewart Cink finished second, 25th, first and fourth respectively in those categories.
Below, I give out my five Round 4 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 RBC Heritage. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Shane Lowry: Under 68.5 Strokes
Lowry currently sits tied for second at 10-under par following a brilliant 65 on Saturday. Through the first three rounds of this tournament, Lowry has gone under this total twice.
Despite his weak putting game through the first three rounds, Lowry has propelled himself towards the top of the leaderboard as he has been dominant in almost every other category. Through the first three rounds, Lowry ranks first among the remaining field in SG: Approach and second in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Not only do I think Lowry shoots under 68.5 tomorrow, but I think he goes well under that to win the tournament. I would play this total down to 67.5 if It moves before he tees off.
Brian Harman: Over 10 Fairways Hit
While Harman's iron game has fallen flat this tournament, his driver has been on fire, hitting 10 or more fairways in each of the first three rounds. Currently, Harman ranks fifth in the remaining field in driving accuracy.
This should come as no surprise since Harman ranks 20th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy percentage. I expect the lefty to keep the driver going on Sunday.
I wouldn't play this total if It moves above 10 before his tee time.
Justin Thomas: Under 8 Fairways Hit
While Harman's driver has been on fire, JT's has been ice cold, going under this total in two of the first three rounds. Currently, Thomas ranks 60th in driving accuracy.
This poor display of driving accuracy is nothing new to Thomas this season, during which he ranks 139th on TOUR. He sits tied for 56th at 2-under par, which means his game has not been there this week. I don't see any reason why Sunday will be different.
I would play this total down to 7.5 if It drops before his tee time.
Tyrrell Hatton: Under 7 Fairways Hit
I'm fading another guy out of the tee box as Hatton has failed to hit this mark in each of the three first rounds. Hatton ranks dead last in driving accuracy in this tournament.
Hatton is averaging just 5.33 fairways hit per round as his driver continues to be his enemy this season. The Englishman ranks 153rd on TOUR in driving accuracy percentage.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 7.
Billy Horschel: Over 69 Strokes
Horschel sits tied for ninth at 8-under par, but his metrics suggest a poor outing is imminent on Sunday.
Besides his putter really saving his score all three rounds, the rest of Horschel's game has not been very good. That could lead to some regression in his score.
Among players who made the cut, Horschel ranks just 64th in SG: Approach and 45th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Horschel shot a 69 in each of the first two rounds and a 67 on Saturday, but I'm betting on regression on Sunday.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 69.
