With the Masters now in the rearview mirror, we move on to the RBC Heritage, which has been hosted annually at Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina. While there are many betting angles to analyze at a course known for its forgiveness, there are some especially strong lines to attack for Round 1 on PrizePicks.
Based on the data of previous champions, there are four strong indicators of success at this tournament that should be used to narrow down the best bets for this tournament: SG Approach the Green, SG Putting, SG Tee to Green and Scrambling. We saw this trend in full effect last year as defending champion Stewart Cink finished second, 25th, first, and fourth respectively in those categories.
Below, I give out my five Round 1 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 RBC Heritage. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Daniel Berger: Round 1 Over 4 Birdies or Better
Berger's metrics suggest a strong outing is imminent at Harbour Town, as he currently ranks 22nd on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 45th in SG Putting, eighth in SG Tee to Gree and eighth in Scrambling. He has had success in his four career appearances here, making the cut all four times.
Not only has he made the cut, but Berger has two top-15 finishes under his belt including a third-place finish in 2020. He has been playing some great golf of late, with four consecutive made cuts and two top-15 finishes in his last four tournaments.
Last year at Harbour Town, Berger reached this total in three of the four rounds. However, I wouldn't play this total if It jumps from 4 to 4.5 before he tees off for his opening round.
Shane Lowry: Round 1 Over 4 Birdies or Better
I'm attacking another birdie prop, as Lowry should excel in this tournament. Currently, he ranks 11th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 17th in SG Putting, 27th in SG Tee to Green and second in Scrambling.
Like Berger, Lowry has had success over his career at Harbour Town, with two top-10 finishes, including a third-place effort in 2019. Lowry enters this event in excellent form, making the cut in five consecutive tournaments. And four of those finishes coming inside the top-15, including two inside the top three.
Lowry just finished tied for third at the Masters last week, which should give him the confidence he needs here. Last year at Harbour Town, Lowry went over this total in three of his four rounds.
I would still play this if the total jumps from 4 to 4.5 before the first round.
Matthew Fitzpatrick: Round 1 Over 4 Birdies or Better
My last birdie prop features Matthew Fitzpatrick, who has been awesome this season. Fitzpatrick currently ranks 13th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 20th in SG Putting, fifth in SG Tee to Green and third in Scrambling.
Over his last five events, Fitzpatrick has made the cut four times with all of those ending in top-20 and two ending in top-10 finishes. Fitzpatrick reached this total in three of four rounds at Harbour Town last year.
I would not play this if the total jumps from 4 to 4.5 before he tees off.
Jordan Spieth: Round 1 Over 69 Strokes
This number is just too low for someone who hasn't been playing great golf recently, especially with his putter. This season, Spieth ranks just 54th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green and 180th in SG Putting.
Spieth enters the event in poor form, missing two of the last four cuts and has zero top-25 finishes over his last six tournaments. While Harbour Town can be a course to shoot low and figure things out, Spieth has failed to do that at Harbour Town over the years.
Over his 20 career rounds at Harbour Town, Spieth has reached at least 69 strokes in 15 of them. I wouldn't play this total if It goes any higher than 69 prior to the start of the opening round.
Kevin Kisner: Round 1 Over 69.5 Strokes
Kisner is a good fade candidate, as his metrics aren't good this season. He ranks just 159th on TOUR in SG Approach the Green, 121st in SG Tee to Green and 173rd in Scrambling.
Recent outings at Harbour Town suggest Kisner won't make the weekend, as he has missed the cut in two consecutive years and gone over this total in six of his last eight rounds here. I believe we're getting a low number because of Kisner's recent finishes. However, his poor metrics suggest big regression is on its way.
I wouldn't play this total if it goes any higher than 69.5 by the time Kisner tees off in the first round.
