2022 RBC Heritage Odds, Picks: Si Woo Kim Among 5 Bets That Fit Harbour Town

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Just a short two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. to play the 2022 RBC Heritage. Hilton Head Island is a golfer's paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from "bomb and gauge" type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 138 golfers. It may quite possibly be the best field in RBC Heritage history when it has been at this point in the schedule.

Some notable golfers in the field are Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sungjae Im.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

• 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
• 2019: CT Pan (-12)
• 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
• 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
• 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
• 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

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5 Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let's take a look at five metrics key for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on PGA TOUR. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+26.1) (+3300)
2. Luke Donald (+23.7) (+22500)
3. Justin Thomas (+21.8) (+1200)
4. Shane Lowry (+18.6) (+2200)
5. Patton Kizzire (+18.5) (+11000)

2. Fairways Gained

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it will force layups and not allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power this week.

Fairways Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Brian Stuard (+43.3) (+17500)
2. Brendon Todd (+42.9) (+16000)
3. Chez Reavie (+40.4) (+22500)
4. Kevin Streelman (+37.3) (+9000)
5. Jim Furyk(+34.5) (+40000)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more Pete Dye specialists near the top of the leader board this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Shane Lowry (+1.7) (+2200)
2. Brian Harman (+1.7) (+6600)
3. Webb Simpson (+1.7) (+3000)
4. Corey Conners (+1.6) (+2500)
5. Dustin Johnson (+1.6) (+1800)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important this week. Past winners such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Cameron Smith (+37.8) (+1400)
2. Kevin Kisner (+31.8) (+4500)
3. Brian Gay (+30.0) (+50000)
4. Matt Kuchar (+28.9) (+6000)
5. Scott Stallings (+24.7) (+12500)

5. Greens in Regulation Gained

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential, and golfers must be in total control of the golf ball to win here.

Greens in Regulation: Gained over past 24 rounds

1. Corey Conners (+26.6) (+2500)
2. Aaron Wise (+25.4) (+11000)
3. Justin Thomas (+24.7) (+1200)
4. Cameron Tringale (+24.1) (+10000)
5. Sepp Straka (+24.0) (+10000)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (26%), Fairways Gained (20%), SG: SG (18%), SG: Pete Dye (18%) and GIR Gained (18%)

1. Adam Hadwin (+6000)
2. Russell Henley (+3300)
3. Daniel Berger (+2800)
4. Corey Conners (+2500)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
6. Shane Lowry (+2200)
7. Brian Harman (+6600)
8. Tom Hoge (+8000)
9. J.J. Spaun (+10000)
10. Alex Noren (+5000)

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2022 RBC Heritage Best Bets

Corey Conners (+2600, FanDuel)

Conners has been putting it all together of late and seems to be trending towards his second career PGA TOUR victory. The Canadian threatened to win the WGC Dell Match Play a few weeks ago before losing in the semifinals to a red-hot Kevin Kisner. He followed that up with an incredibly impressive performance last week at Augusta National finishing in a tie for sixth place.

In a week where all of the best players in the world were seemingly making big numbers left and right, Conners' steady play was exceptional. He shot 70-73-72-70 in large part due his ability to control the golf ball in any and all conditions.

Recent RBC Heritage winners have all excelled in hitting greens in regulation. That is great news for Conners, considering he ranks first in his past 24 rounds in this star-studded field. In many ways, Harbour Town is the perfect course for the 30-year-old. He is remarkably accurate both off the tee and with his irons. With the course having the second smallest greens on TOUR, his precision will pay dividends.

Conners has already proven he likes the course, having finished fourth here last year. That week, he gained 8.1 strokes from tee to green and 2.0 strokes with the putter. Both statistics and the eye test say his putter is starting to come around, which would be the only aspect of his game holding him back from a plaid jacket Sunday evening.

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Daniel Berger (+2800, BetMGM)

At times, golf can be an incredibly difficult sport to predict. With a wide range of potential outcomes in every tournament, narrowing down the winner is never an easy task. But Daniel Berger’s success has been somewhat predictable in the past.

All four of Berger’s PGA TOUR victories have come at relatively short courses. TPC Southwind (two wins), Colonial Country Club, and Pebble Beach Golf Links are all courses that do not require distance off the tee and reward sharp iron play.

In his past 36 rounds, the Florida State University product ranks first in the field in courses that are under 7,200 yards. Harbour Town Golf Links fits that description as it is a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards. Unsurprisingly, Berger has excelled at the course in the past with a 13th place finish last year, and a third-place finish in 2020.

Berger also arrives at Harbour Town in solid form. Among his six stroke play starts this season, he has finished in the top 20 in four of them including two finishes in the top five. At a course with the second smallest greens on TOUR, spectacular iron play is going to be more important than ever. The 29-year-old is a remarkably consistent iron player, and ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.

Berger has shown he is capable of winning in strong fields when the course suits him, and Harbour Town seems to be an ideal spot for him to earn his fifth PGA TOUR victory.

Billy Horschel (+4500, bet365)

"Billy Ho" is having an excellent 2022 season. The former Florida Gator is 7/7 in made cuts and finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before making a nice run at the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Speaking of the Match Play (which Horschel won in 2021), Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design like Harbour Town. Both courses require a great deal of strategy and accuracy, which suit Horschel's strengths. Another similar course to Harbour Town is Sedgefield Country Club, which is arguably Horschel's favorite course on TOUR. He finished in second place there in 2020 and had only one finish outside of the top 11 in his last five trips.

The 35-year-old ranked ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach at The Masters last week which shows me he is in good form considering Augusta National is a course that really doesn't lend itself to what Billy does best.

Due to the strong field this week, mid-tier players with real equity have slipped down the betting board a bit. Horschel is a great value bet this week and has a real shot to contend.

Kevin Kisner (+5500, DraftKings)

In his past two starts on Pete Dye tracks, Kevin Kisner has finished fourth at THE PLAYERS Championship which features arguably the best field in golf, and runner up to Scottie Scheffler at the WGC-Dell Technolgies Match Play. "Kiz" will be the first to tell you he has a tough time competing with the big hitters at long courses, but when he gets to one of his spots he has as good a chance as anyone.

Harbour Town is a strategic golf course that requires golfers to make smart decisions. Kisner excels on those types of tracks and comes into the week feeling confident knowing that he's playing a course that he can win at. Kisner has struggled here the past few years but has finished second in 2015. He comes into the week with strong form and if his game is clicking on all cylinders, he can go toe to toe with anyone in the field.

Si Woo Kim (+6500, DraftKings)

I was a bit surprised when I saw Si Woo Kim at +6500 this week. Yes, the field is stronger than we usually see at the RBC Heritage, but this track is as perfect as it gets for the South Korean. Kim has three PGA TOUR victories, and all three are on Pete Dye-designed courses.

He also has had great results on this particular Dye track, as he narrowly lost in a playoff to Satoshi Kodaira here in 2018. He also had a close call at the Wyndham Championship, which is a similar course to Harbour Town with a great deal of leaderboard crossover.

Kim has had a solid but unspectacular 2022 thus far, and a win this week would help jump start his case for this year's Presidents Cup.

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