Jon Rahm holds a two-shot lead at 15-under par after shooting a 68 on Saturday at Vidanta Vallarta. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five Round 4 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 Mexico Open. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Jon Rahm: Round 4 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
Rahm currently sits in first place, which is a big benefit for this prop to go over. If he holds the lead, especially after the turn, he will play conservatively and look for the safe shots down the middle of the fairway, even if It costs him some distance.
This should work in our favor to get this prop to go over. Rahm has gone over this total in two of the first three rounds and currently ranks fifth amongst the remaining field in driving accuracy.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 9.5.
Kevin Na: Round 4 Under 9.5 Fairways Hit
His number just should not be the same as Rahm's for numerous reasons. Na's driving accuracy ranks just 48th amongst the remaining field and he has gone under this total in two of the first three rounds.
This season, Na ranks just 198th on TOUR in SG Off the Tee. To hit 10 fairways on Sunday, his driver will have to be on fire.
I would play this total down to 9.
Pat Perez: Round 4 Under 8 Fairways Hit
I am fading another golfer off the tee box as Perez should struggle to hit eight fairways. Perez currently ranks 63rd amongst the remaining field in driving accuracy this tournament and has hit eight or fewer fairways in all three rounds thus far.
It would be surprising if he somehow surpassed this figure for the first time this tournament on Sunday because his driver has been difficult for him all season. Currently, Perez ranks just 144th on TOUR in driving accuracy.
I would not play this number at anything lower than 8.
Cameron Tringale: Round 4 Under 8 Fairways Hit
The last golfer I am fading out of the tee box is Tringale, who has struggled off the tee this week. He ranks 65th amongst the remaining field in driving accuracy and has hit eight or fewer fairways in all three rounds thus far.
If this sounds eerily similar to the section I just wrote regarding Perez, that's because they have both really struggled this season off the tee box. On TOUR this season, Tringale ranks just 126th in driving accuracy.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 8.
Cameron Champ: Round 4 Under 69 Strokes
This total is just disrespectful to the guy who sits in second place, just two shots behind Rahm. Champ has gone under this total by at least two strokes in each of the first three rounds and should be able to do so again on Sunday as he chases Rahm.
I am not sure why the oddsmakers believe regression should be coming for Champ, who he has been stellar all tournament. Amongst the remaining field, Champ ranks second in SG Putting, first in SG Off the Tee, ninth in SG Tee to Green and first in Driving Distance.
I would play this number down to 68.5. While I think he could shoot a 67 or lower once again, it is important to remember that he may play super aggressively on the last few holes if he is just a few shots behind the leader.
