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Contrary to what I would like to believe, you can't win them all. This is especially the case when it comes to betting on golf. I was riding high after hitting three outrights in a stretch of six weeks but came crashing back down to earth last week with the 3M Open. The only positive was Tom Hoge, who finished in the top five and was one of the best value plays for DFS.
This week, we turn our attention to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross design that plays as a par-72 and measures 7,370 yards on the scorecard. Unlike last week, there are very few hazards in play at this course. In fact, water is only in play on just one hole. Over the last three years, this course has had the lowest double bogey or worse rate of any on the PGA TOUR.
Off the tee, golfers will see tree-lined fairways that are 36 yards wide on average. The fairways have been easy to hit over the years and golfers can hit driver on most of the holes. You don't have to be a bomber to contend, but it certainly doesn't hurt. Bryson DeChambeau won here in 2020 and laid out a perfect blueprint for how the longer hitters can attack this course.
The greens here are smaller than TOUR average, yet we have seen golfers hit 75% of the greens over the last three years. That's one of the highest marks on TOUR during that stretch. More often than not, these birdie-fests turn into putting contests and we could certainly see that again this week. It's hard to imagine someone winning at 20-under par without gaining strokes on the greens.
Favorite Bet: Max Homa +2500
For the record, I bet both Homa and Cameron Young at the top of the board. However, I'll roll with Homa as my favorite bet since we are getting a better price on him this week.
He missed the cut at The Open but was paired with Tiger Woods and only missed playing the weekend by one stroke. He has already won twice this season, he loves classical golf courses, he's 2-for-2 at this event, and he doesn't have a weakness in his game.
Longshot Bet: Cameron Champ +7500
Champ is somewhat of a gut pick of mine this week, as he's not going to rate out well in any type of model that you build. He's the longest hitter on the PGA Tour and when he gains strokes putting, he tends to gain a lot of them. Granted, those spike weeks are few and far between.
I love what I saw from Champ last week in Minnesota, as he birdied the last three holes to make the cut on the number. He then put together a strong weekend and finished in the top 20. This is a great course fit and we are getting a great price on a three-time winner.
Contrarian DFS Play: Patrick Rodgers $7,100 DK / $8,900 FD
Again, you don't have to be a bomber to contend at this course. However, we've seen the bomber + putter combination work wonders here in the past.
Rodgers is long and straight off the tee and he's one of the best putters in the field. Unlike Beau Hossler and Wyndham Clark, Rodgers has flashed some upside with his irons recently. In fact, he has gained on approach in six of his last seven starts. He's cheap, he's projected to be low-owned, and he's 2-for-2 at this event in his career.
As always, best of luck!
