Taylor Pendrith shot a 65 on Friday and holds a one-stroke lead at 15-under par following the second round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 4x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Young: Round 3 Under 10 Fairways Hit
We are going to be fading a couple of guys off the tee box, starting with Cameron Young. Entering the third round, Young is T4 at 10-under par after shooting an incredible 63 on Friday.
Young has gone over this total in each of the first two rounds as he hit 13 fairways on Thursday and 12 on Friday. So why is his total only set at 10 for Saturday?
Like me, the oddsmakers are expecting some regression from Young's driver. On TOUR this season, Young ranks just 114th in Driving Accuracy at 59.8%, a number far below the 89.3% he's posted thus far at Detroit Golf Club.
It is not like he is in the middle of the pack with this figure either. Amongst the remaining field, Young ranks third in Driving Accuracy.
To make matters even more difficult for Young on Saturday, he is teeing off at approximately 12:40 p.m. and the afternoon has been playing more difficult than the morning.
I would not play this total lower than 10.
Adam Scott: Round 3 Under 9.5 Fairways Hit
Another guy in a similar situation as Young is Adam Scott, who we will also be fading. Entering Saturday, Scott is T7 at 9-under par after shooting a 66 on Friday.
Scott has gone over this total in each of the first two rounds as he hit 10 fairways on Thursday and 12 on Friday. Like Young, Scott's total is also set beneath the number he has gone over in each of the opening rounds.
Also like Young, we should expect some regression from Scott. On TOUR this season, Scott ranks just 166th in Driving Accuracy at 55.6%, a number far below the 78.6% he possesses thus far at Detroit Golf Club.
Teeing off with the afternoon wave, Scott will play the course when it is more difficult.
I would not play this number lower than 9.5.
Webb Simpson: Round 3 Over 10 Fairways Hit
While we are fading a few guys off the tee box on Saturday, we are also backing a couple. The first golfer whose driver we are backing on Saturday is Webb Simpson.
Entering the third round, Simpson is T35 at 5-under par after shooting a 73 on Friday. Young has hit 10 or more fairways in each of the first two rounds, a trend I expect to continue over the weekend.
On TOUR this season, Simpson ranks 35th in Driving Accuracy at 65.3%. While this number is lower than his tournament figure of 78.6%, the regression will most likely come on Sunday instead of Saturday as Simpson will have a morning tee time in the third round.
I would play this total up to 10.5.
Cameron Tringale: Round 3 Over 9 Fairways Hit
Another golfer whose driver we are backing on Saturday is Cameron Tringale. Entering the third round, Tringale is T45 at 4-under par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
Tringale has failed to go over this total in each of the first two rounds, a trend I do not expect to continue over the weekend. Through Thursday and Friday, Tringale is hitting fairways at a mere 57.1% clip, a number below his TOUR season average of 59.8%.
Tringale has hit eight fairways in each of the first two rounds, so he just needs to positively regress by one drive on Saturday to at least push. I am optimistic he can do so as he is part of the morning grouping.
I would not play this number higher than 9.
Chris Kirk: Round 3 Over 69 Strokes
The last play we are making on Saturday is fading Chris Kirk. He has failed to go over in each of the first two rounds and I expect further regression in the third round.
Outside of his putting, Kirk's game has been fade worthy thus far in this tournament. Amongst the remaining field, Kirk ranks 12th in SG: Putting.
However, he also ranks just 61st in SG: Around-the-Green, 46th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 51st in SG: Tee-to-Green. It is unrealistic to believe his low scoring is sustainable if his putter is the only club in the bag working.
I would play this total up to 69.5.
