These early season events are always hard to handicap because we have limited data on all the Korn Ferry Tour golfers making their paths on the PGA Tour. One good or bad finish will drastically shift their profiles since the strokes gained data can promptly overtake their proper baseline form. I would compare these contests to preseason football — where the wheels are still in motion trying to figure out answers for the season — which means we need to be careful in taking too aggressive of an approach on any outlier category that might be flawed from a long-term outlook.
Keep all of that in mind as I run down some of my most overrated options on the board for the first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship. Let's see if we can find value in this market by opposing golfers who are getting more credit than they deserve.
If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports), where I will provide my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is free and released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Five Most Overpriced Golfers On The Slate
Justin Suh
I'd be careful in calling Justin Suh the most overrated golfer on the board, although there is likely a middle between his public perception and the flawed metrics in my model that will need some time to normalize.
Suh's data on my sheet is heavily pulling from his missed cut at the Fortinet Championship, meaning we are getting too small of a sample size to deduce much of a takeaway for how he will fit on tour. There is still something to be said about him entering these events as the hottest Korn Ferry player on the planet, something that has enhanced the outlook of many gamblers when they look into Suh's upside, but how much emphasis is too much to place on one poor showing?
There is a bet on Bet365 where you can grab Dean Burmester at -110 against his American opponent, and while my model is shooting out all sorts of value on the surface because of the variables I mentioned previously, I decided to bypass recording the wager for official bookkeeping purposes since there is a chance we look back at my data in a few months and realize the gap was far too large.
In fairness, I can promise you that is 100% the case right now with the information my model is providing, and it just comes down to "how much do I trust Suh to become a legitimate weekly threat on tour?" If I standardize my numbers for the 25-year-old to try and project his future, this bet shrinks down to Burmester -120 being the proper price, which still gives us value, but removes almost all the edge we believed we had.
Aaron Rai
I like attacking this article from a different approach than I usually would since there isn't a legal head-to-head wager for day one that my model is in love with from a value perspective. As we all know, there are a million books in existence where we can try to find bargain matchups and I would be actively searching if there is a way to oppose Aaron Rai at one of your shops.
The 27-year-old ranks 90th in my model from an overall outlook and drops to 95th when I look into safety. The recalculated metrics begin to highlight a poor course fit potential that suggests the Country Club of Jackson could not suit Rai's eye. When I redistributed the scoring dispersion totals that have been critical to finding success here over the past five years, Rai slipped 73 spots from 30th to 103rd, implying a potential implosion on Thursday or Friday could be in store.
I haven't necessarily found the proper opponent to take against him since a C.T. Pan type option would have issues of its own, but perhaps a matchup against Taylor Moore or someone of that nature would be the best way to oppose Rai on Thursday.
Nick Taylor
Are markets overvaluing Nick Taylor because of his sixth-place finish at the Fortinet Championship? I'd say that for as much as Justin Suh is getting discredited by my model for his poor finish at Silverado Country Club, most bettors are overly inflating that high-end result from the Canadian, which is equally as dangerous.
Taylor had provided seven consecutive finishes outside the top 50 before his top 10 in California, and it is not as if his run at the Country Club of Jackson is any better, having missed the weekend three consecutive times. If you shop around in the space, you can find an option like Carl Yuan against Taylor at -120, a player who has shrunk to 55/1 at some books to win this event.
Consider that one path I like as a way to gain exposure to Yuan, but there are other options in play, including taking Yuan at +300 to finish top 40. That option is enticing since it gives us a higher EV shot on his upside potential.
Chez Reavie
Roberto Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and I discussed why we didn't like Chez Reavie during our Links + Locks podcast this week, but I can summarize those takeaways in a few sentences.
Reavie ranks 111th in my model for weighted strokes gained total, 127th in the critical scoring ranges and 104th in ball-striking, generating TONS of missed-cut equity to go along with his low-ceiling upside. That is an ideal combination to look for in these head-to-head matchups and it just comes down to trying to find a matchup against him in the market.
Henrik Norlander
I didn't see many matchups involving Henrik Norlander from a pre-tournament perspective, but there are books yielding an opportunity to oppose the Swedish golfer Thursday — most notably with an option such as Chesson Hadley.
Norlander ranks outside the top 100 in weighted Bermuda putting (133rd), strokes gained off the tee (111th), weighted strokes gained total (102nd), my model's simulation of all 18 holes (100th) and Bermuda putting + par-five birdie or better percentage (129th). The fact that Norlander only cracked the top 80 in two of the six critical categories I ran should be alarming for his four-day outlook, and I love trying to take him on if an opportunity presents itself at one of your books.
