2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Keegan Bradley & 4 More Bets for Country Club of Jackson

After a dominating performance by the United States at the Presidents Cup, the PGA TOUR heads to Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.

The course is a 7,461-yard par 72 with fast Bermudagrass greens. The tournament had been an alternate-field event up until the 2019-20 season, when it was upgraded to a standalone event that gives the winner 500 FedEx Cup points and an invitation to the Masters.

The field is largely as expected for a swing-season event, but there are some talented players teeing it up in Jackson this week. Some notable golfers in the 156-man field this week include Keegan Bradley, Sebastian Munoz, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala and Gary Woodland.

Past Winners at Country Club of Jackson

• 2021: Sam Burns (-22)
• 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
• 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
• 2018: Cameron Champ (-21) 
• 2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
• 2016: Cody Gribble (-20)

Let's take a look at several key metrics for the Country Club of Jackson to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

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Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach will be important this week as the club was renovated in 2008 and tried to imitate some classic Donald Ross course features. This means the greens will be relatively small, and finding the right level on approach shots will be crucial.

The course will generate plenty of low scores, so it’s important that players give themselves plenty of birdie looks. Sergio Garcia gained 7.0 strokes on the field in his victory two seasons ago, which was third in the field. Sam Burns gained 8.3 last year, which was good for second. 

Total strokes gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Brendan Steele (+23.6) (+6500)
2. Chez Reavie (+22.0) (+10000)
3. Russell Henley (+21.4) (+2200)
4. Stephen Jaeger (+15.8) (+8000)
5. Chesson Hadley (+15.2) (+10000)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Placing an emphasis on who the best drivers of the golf ball are is a smart strategy. This stat has driving accuracy built into it, and though the fairways are relatively easy to hit at the Country Club of Jackson, long and straight is always a big advantage. 

I am looking for golfers who are going to have the shortest approach shots and are coming in from the fairway. In 2020 and 2021, respective winners Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns led the field (+5.5) and (+6.1) in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Total strokes gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

1. Emiliano Grillo (+16.8) (+4000)
2. Hayden Buckley (+15.6) (+13000)
3. Luke List (+15.5) (+10000)
4. Brendan Steele (+15.3) (+6500)
5. Wyndham Clark (+14.3) (+5000)

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Driving Distance

The four most recent winners at the Country Club of Jackson all hit it pretty far off of the tee. With the rough not being a major problem this week, the bomb-and-gauge approach should be very successful.

Driving Distance gained over past 24 rounds:

1. Joseph Bramlett (+23.2) (+13000)
2. Will Gordon (+18.0) (+13000)
3. Thomas Detry (+15.7) (+4000)
4. Wyndham Clark (+15.4) (+5000)
5. Brandon Matthews (+15.2) (+40000)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Three of the four par 5s on the course should be reachable by the longer hitters, with the longest par 5 hole measuring 587 yards. Finding eagle and birdie opportunities on the Par 5s this week may be the difference in determining a winner.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 5 in past 24 rounds:

1. Stephen Jaeger (+13.2) (+8000)
2. Brandon Wu (+11.5) (+13000)
3. Kyle Westmoreland (+9.9) (+40000)
4. Thomas Detry (+9.6) (+4000)
5. Emiliano Grillo (+9.1) (+4000)

SG: Putting (Bermudagrass Greens Fast or Lightning)

Historically, SG: Putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship has weighed as the most indicative score of the tournament winner. While this isn’t necessarily rare in PGA TOUR tournaments, it was 10% more important at Country Club of Jackson than the average course on TOUR.

The greens have been either “fast” or “lightning” in every round the tournament has been played. Whoever wins this week will need to catch a hot putter, so the best putters on Bermuda should have the best chance to do that.

Sam Burns ranked first in this part of the model last season prior to his victory.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda+Fast or Lightning) past 24 rounds:

1. Sepp Straka (+18.0) (+5000)
2. Sam Burns (+15.7) (+1100)
3. Ben Taylor (+14.7) (+13000)
4. Chesson Hadley (+14.6)(+10000)
5. Harris English (+14.5) (+10000)

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Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%) SG: OTT: (25%), Driving Distance (18%), SG: Par 5 (18%), SG: Putting (Bermuda) 14%.

1. Emiliano Grillo (+4000)
2. Trey Mullinax (+5000)
3. Brendan Steele (+6500)
4. Brandon Wu (+13000)
5. Scott Stallings (+3000)
6. Stephen Jaeger (+8000)
7. Davis Thompson (+13000)
8. Michael Gligic (+13000)
9. Patrick Rodgers (+8000)
10. Callum Tarren (+10000)

Sanderson Farms Championship Best Bets

Keegan Bradley (+5000, BetRivers)

The PGA TOUR’s “swing season” is often looked at as a great opportunity to get behind some young players whose best days are ahead of them. Due to this narrative that seems to happen every fall, I believe a lot of the betting value shifts to the TOUR veterans. Outside of the favorites, there is no doubt that at this point in time, Keegan Bradley is a better golfer than most of the players on the betting board. 

Bradley isn’t in the best of form at the moment, which is another reason we are getting a good number on him this week. Recent form is typically a good indicator of players who can win, but I think it can be overlooked for the most part during the fall swing. A lot of players have reset and taken a month or more off, and therefore we shouldn’t read into it as much as usual. 

At the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, Bradley came into the event in poor form. He had missed two consecutive cuts, and three of his past four. He still managed to finish fourth in the event, despite struggling for the latter part of the previous season. 

The Country Club of Jackson should be a great course fit for the 36-year-old. The past few years at the event have shown how favorable the course setup is for dynamic ball strikers such as Bradley. Garcia’s win here in 2021 shows the path to victory that Bradley may be able to follow. If he can manage to gain a few strokes with the putter, he should find himself in the mix come Sunday.

Trey Mullinax (+5000, DraftKings)

Trey Mullinax has the ideal skill set to win at the Country Club of Jackson. He finished fourth here last year and ranks sixth in both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Par 5. 

Mullinax recently won the Barbasol, which is in a similar area of the country (Kentucky), and he played college golf at Alabama. He should be incredibly comfortable in the region.

The 30-year-old missed the cut at the Fortinet Championship, but he should be able to let the driver loose a little bit more at this event. Prior to last week, he had been playing great golf in some strong field events, so I believe his start at Silverado is an outlier.

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Hayden Buckley (+13000, DraftKings)

Hayden Buckley has already shown that he is a great fit for the Country Club of Jackson. Last season, he finished fourth in the event, gaining 5.8 strokes from tee to green in the process. 

In the field, Buckley ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Gaining strokes in that category has been a major indicator of success at this event. The most recent two winners of the Sanderson Farms Championship both led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The 25-year-old bomber has the capability to do the same this week.

Davis Thompson (+13000, DraftKings)

Davis Thompson is a former Georgia Bulldog who knows how to get it done in the Southeast. 

In his last event, Thompson showed why he was such a highly regarded prospect prior to last season. He finished in ninth place at Silverado, which was the best finish of his young career on the PGA TOUR.

The former All-American and SEC Player of the Year should be an excellent fit at the Country Club of Jackson. He ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

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Vincent Norrman (+20000, DraftKings)

There has been a lot of hype surrounding Korn Ferry Tour graduates Taylor Montgomery and Justin Suh, but perhaps the best ball striker of the bunch is Vincent Norrman.

Norrman had a solid debut at the Fortinet, finishing 36th and shooting even par or better in all four rounds. He also gained 4.2 strokes off of the tee, and his driving prowess is partly what makes him attractive at this price.

The Swede had plenty of strong finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, but one of his best (T3) came at The Grove, which is in Tennessee. He also played some college golf at Georgia Southwestern State before attending Florida State University, so he will be pretty comfortable in this part of the country.

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