After shooting a 65 in the third round, Mark Hubbard enters Sunday in first place with a one-stroke lead (15-under).
Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Sanderson Farms Championship Round 4 PrizePicks Plays
Mark Hubbard: Round 4 Under 70 Strokes
The Country Club of Jackson has hosted this tournament annually since 2014. This course is a par 72, 7,461-yard track that was redesigned by John Fought in 2008 and incorporates some Donald Ross signatures.
In typical Ross fashion, there are many small, undulating greens that reward strong ball strikers who can put the ball close and avoid long putts. Looking at the previous winners of this tournament, SG: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%) are the top two predictors of success at this course.
Hubbard is in first at 15-under after the first three rounds. After shooting a 69 or lower in every round this week, we should expect his strong play to continue Sunday.
Despite some below-average putting, Hubbard has been phenomenal this week. Amongst the remaining field, he ranks first in SG: Approach-the-Green, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and 14th in GIR%.
Now, if just a few more of those putts start to drop, Hubbard could potentially run away with this tournament on Sunday afternoon. A strong week should have been predictable for Hubbard, who is one of the better ball strikers in this field.
On TOUR last season, he ranked 63rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 35th in GIR%. Strong iron play helped him last week at the Fortinet Championship, a tournament in which he shot a 70 or lower in three of the four rounds.
I would not play this total any lower than 70.
Seamus Power: Round 4 Under 70 Strokes
After successfully hitting on this prop in the third round, we are going back to the well. Power is T25 at 7-under through the three rounds.
While he has only gone under this number once this week, we should expect him to go low in back-to-back rounds. On TOUR last season, Power ranked 76th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 27th in GIR%.
Additionally, he enters this week in strong form as he has made five of his past eight cuts. Of those five made cuts, four resulted in top-25 finishes, including a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship.
In an obviously much more watered-down field, Power is one of the better ball strikers in this tournament. On top of that, the Country Club of Jackson is a course he has previously played well.
Through five career appearances at this track, Power has a trio of top-30 finishes.
I would play this number down to 69.5.
Chris Kirk: Round 4 Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also backing a few golfers off the tee box on Sunday.
Entering the final round, Kirk is T43 at 5-under. After hitting eight or more fairways in each of the first three rounds, we should expect his strong driving to continue.
The driver was arguably Kirk's best club last season as he finished 35th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 36th in Driving Accuracy. He should be plenty comfortable on Sunday considering how he has previously performed at the Country Club of Jackson.
Through five career appearances at this track, he has made four cuts, including a second-place finish in 2016.
I would play this total up to 8.
Emiliano Grillo: Round 4 Over 8 Fairways Hit
In our final repeat play from Saturday, we are backing Grillo to get over his fairway prop once again. Entering Sunday, Grillo is T8 at 10-under.
After hitting just seven fairways on Thursday, his driving has rebounded nicely as he has hit eight or more in each of the past two rounds. We should expect Grillo's final round to continue that trend.
The driver was undoubtedly the strongest part of Grillo's game last season as he finished 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 41st in Driving Accuracy. That strong driving carried over into last week's Fortinet Championship, where he finished T25 and ranked 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
At the Fortinet Championship, Grillo averaged eight fairways hit per round. Like Kirk, Grillo should be comfortable at this course as he has made the cut in all three of his previous appearances here and also finished inside the top 40 each time.
I would not play this number any higher than 8.
Mackenzie Hughes: Round 4 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also going to fade one guy off the tee box on Sunday. Entering the final round, Hughes is in second place at 14-under.
While he has gone under this number just once through the first three rounds, we should expect regression on Sunday. This week, his irons have been outstanding, but his driving has been fade-worthy.
Amongst the remaining field, Hughes ranks 45th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 43rd in Driving Accuracy. This trend should not be surprising given that his driving was the worst part of his game last season.
On TOUR, he ranked 166th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 134th in Driving Accuracy. This poor driving carried over into last week's Fortinet Championship, where he finished 64th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 69th in Driving Accuracy.
To put those rankings into perspective, those numbers are out of the 73 golfers who made the cut.
I would not play this total lower than 7.5.
