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After a slow start, we are finally starting to hit our stride with this betting article. We have had two winners in the last three weeks — Matthew Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open and J.T. Poston at the John Deere Classic.
Golf betting is so different from other sports because you can have 10 losing weeks in a row and make it all back by hitting a winner the next week. It's always important to keep in mind the long-term goal of being profitable over the course of the season and to employ strict bankroll management.
The Genesis Scottish Open is the first co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour. The field is absolutely stacked, which creates some awfully enticing odds as we go down the betting board.
Before we get to the picks, let's quickly preview the Renaissance Golf Club. This is a links-style par-71 that measures 7,289 yards. It is different from most par 71 courses in that it features four par fives and five par threes.
The difficulty of the course hinges on the weather. This course has hosted the event each of the last three years and has produced some drastically different winning scores: 18-under, 11-under and 22-under. Based on the strength of the field and the fact that there only appears to be one day with significant wind in the forecast, we can expect some low scores this week.
Rather than relying on statistics, I am looking for links experience, form and talent.
Favorite Bet: Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Fleetwood has a lot working for him this week, so I'm surprised the books are hanging such a big number for us.
Yes, I know he doesn't win very often but that's exactly what everyone said about Xander Schauffele before the Travelers Championship. And hey, Fleetwood has five wins on the DP World Tour in his career.
He's always been known as a ball striker, but he's quietly ranked ninth in strokes gained around the green and 37th in Strokes Gained: Putting on the PGA TOUR this season. He loves links golf and has finished T26 and second here in the last two years.
Favorite Longshot: Aaron Rai +6600
I was having a tough time deciding between Rai and Herbert as my favorite longshot of the week. For the record, I have outrights on both golfers.
Rai is doing everything he can to punch his ticket to the year's final major. He narrowly missed out on a spot in the qualifier and then narrowly missed out on a spot at last week's Irish Open, where he finished ninth.
Luckily for him, he knows how to win at the Renaissance Club. He won here in 2020 and backed it up with a T35 here last year. He hits a ton of greens and can be very streaky with the putter.
DFS Value Play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,500 DK / $9,000 FD
Since the start of 2021, C-Bez has made 89% of his cuts worldwide. For the record, that's the fifth-best mark in this field. Consistency is always good for DFS, especially if you are playing cash games or small-field tournaments.
And make no mistake about it, Bezuidenhout has plenty of upside to go with that high floor. He has three career wins on the DP World Tour and is coming off of a second place finish at the John Deere Classic last week. He doesn't have the best course history at the Renaissance Club, but he's made two cuts here in the last three years.
Good luck!
