Once again, the wind wreaked havoc on a tournament on Thursday as the wave draw saw a huge three-shot edge in favor of the players with morning tee times. The winds were quiet to start the day and allowed Cameron Tringale to jump out with a 9-under 61 to take a three-shot edge over Gary Woodland into Friday.
Tringale led the field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting, which is always a great combination for a really low round. Woodland and Justin Harding were the two other players with rounds of 65 or better while a total of 39 players broke par to start the week.
The majority of those par breakers came from the morning session, but Kurk Kitayama was extremely impressive in the afternoon group. His 4-under 66 led that pack by two shots over his playing partner Jordan L. Smith. Unfortunately for this group and the rest of their wave it doesn't appear they will get the same quiet winds tomorrow as it is forecasted for steady 13-18 mph winds with gusts in the low- to mid twenties throughout the day Friday.
There should be plenty of betting value going into Round 2 and we'll look to dial in on those players at the Scottish Open.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2
I am going into Friday with the expectation that the play is much more consistent throughout the day and with that I won't favor one side or the other. Obviously, with the big edge the morning guys got on Thursday my buys will favor them as they are naturally in better position to contend, but it is not due to any further wave advantage at this stage. It will be important to keep an eye on the wind and weather changes leading up to the start of the round early Friday morning.
Sam Burns is where I am starting my buys going into the second round. He gained nearly three shots on the field with his irons Thursday and the four-time winner on the PGA Tour really started to find his game in his closing nine holes. Burns had pars on his first 11 holes of the day before reeling off three straight birdies to get to three under. He would get back on the par train to close at that number with a bogey-free round. He closed the day gaining strokes on the field in each of his final seven approach shots and I expect he will come out ready to score on Friday. Burns is +1200 on BetRivers going into the second round and that's a decent number for a guy who knows how to close when he gets opportunities.
My favorite value on the board is with Dylan Frittelli. DraftKings has him all the way out to +8000 and there are some spots that have him at half of that number. He has shown an ability to play in the wind, but also on links courses after he posted a top-5 finish in the Open Championship last year. Frittelli gained more than five shots on the field with his ball striking Thursday and nearly four of those came on approach. If he can keep striking it well, the wind won't effect him nearly as much as the guys who struggled a bit in those metrics today.
I think you can go further down the board than I am today, but the value is there for me to not dig too deep. Tyrrell Hatton is a good example of that value. When he is in form he can still be one of the better players in the world. Hatton just simply hasn't had his game in recent weeks, but oddly the JP McManus Pro-Am this week may have propelled him to find something. He finished fourth, with both of his rounds in the 60s and carried that momentum into the Scottish Open. Hatton's 2-under 68 has him right in the mix to be a name to watch the rest of the way and at +3500 on DraftKings, he has some outright value. I'll look to buy the Englishman in all formats on Friday to see if he can stay hot with his game in Round 2.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2
The round put together by Kurt Kitayama was right there with Tringale for the round of the day. When you consider the conditions Kitayama played in, it stacks up with anything the leader did today. My fade for Kitayama is in part due to his overall form and the way his short game had to carry him on Thursday. He is a player who has flashed at times this year near the top of leaderboards, but has missed the cut in three of his past four tournaments. The big issue in those events has been struggling iron play and even with the 66 in the opening round, he still lost strokes to the field on approach. Part of that is unquestionably due to the conditions, but it really shows in the 5.8 shots gained with his short game. I'm putting the early fade in on Kitayama as I think the opening round will ultimately be the exception in his week.
I'm fading Doug Ghim at 3-under after the first round for some of the same reasons as Kitayama. Ghim certainly could be coming into form with his game — or have a knack for links play that we just don't know about yet — but it's hard for me to buy in on a guy who just missed the cut in such a weak field at the John Deere Classic.
Ghim gained just over a stroke and a half on the field tee to green in his opening round, playing from the easier wave. He didn't gain more than a shot in any of those metrics, but did gain 3.38 strokes with the flat stick. I don't think he's going to be able to rely on the putter to carry him through and until I see a little more form in his ball striking, I feel pretty comfortable with the fade into Friday.
Cameron Smith is my bolder fade going into the second round. I am concerned with how he hasn't snapped out of this bad form on approach as he lost strokes to the field with his irons from the easier wave on Thursday. It wasn't a couple of bad swings either as he lost strokes on exactly half of his approach shots during the round. We know Smith has an impeccable short game, which can mask his current deficiencies with his irons, but that approach play will get exposed further in the winds on Friday. Typically, the Australian is great in wind and I may be putting the cart before the horse here with the fade, but his final round issues in Canada carried over into the U.S. Open and they showed again Thursday despite his 2-under score.
StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 1
