Cameron Tringale is in first place with a three-stroke lead at 7-under par following the second round of the Scottish Open. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 Scottish Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers an 11x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Tringale: Round 3 Over 71.5 Strokes
Tringale is in first place at 7-under par after shooting a 72 on Friday. Tringale was due for some regression in round two and I think he will regress further in round three as his putter has been his saving grace to start this tournament.
Amongst the remaining field, Tringale ranks first in SG: Putting through the first two rounds. However, the rest of his game has been below average relative to the rest of the pack as he ranks just 55th in SG: Around-the-Green, 33rd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 32nd in SG: Tee-to-Green.
After an absurdly dominant first round, Tringale came back down to earth on Friday and I expect more of the same in Saturday's third round.
I would not play this total above 71.5.
Matt Kuchar: Round 3 Over 72 Strokes
Another guy whose putter has kept him afloat thus far is Matt Kuchar. Currently, Kuchar is T29 at 1-over par after shooting a 68 on Friday.
Based on his metrics, I think it is more likely Saturday goes more like round one for Kuchar, who shot a 73 on Thursday. Amongst the remaining field, Kuchar ranks 13th in SG: Putting.
However, the rest of Kuchar's game has been fade worthy as he ranks just 53rd in SG: Around-the-Green, 42nd in SG: Approach-the-Green, 47th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 58th in SG: Tee-to-Green. This trend has been a theme for Kuchar all season and once his putter starts to fail he plummets down the leaderboard.
We saw this exact same scenario play out at the PGA Championship when Kuchar shot a 73 on both Saturday and Sunday after shooting a 67 and 71 on Thursday and Friday.
I would play this number up to 72.5.
Tommy Fleetwood: Round 3 Over 71.5 Strokes
The last guy I am fading on Saturday is Tommy Fleetwood, who is T38 at 2-over par after shooting a 69 on Friday.
PrizePicks thinks we are going to see some regression from Fleetwood on Saturday and I concur based on his metrics. Through the first two rounds, Fleetwood ranks just 31st amongst the field in SG: Putting, 59th in SG: Around-the-Green, 66th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 54th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
The one area where Fleetwood has been good is off the tee, as he ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee amongst the remaining field. This metric is the primary reason why I expect regression for Fleetwood, because this area of his game is typically his weakest.
This season on TOUR, Fleetwood ranks 100th in SG: Off-the-Tee — his lowest metric rating.
I would play this total up to 72.
Jordan Spieth: Round 3 Under 71 Strokes
While I am fading a few golfers above for their above-average putting thus far, I am also backing a couple of golfers whose putting has hurt their games through the first two rounds. Jordan Spieth is T20 at even-par after shooting a 72 on Friday.
Spieth's putting has been the weakest part of his game as he ranks just 56th amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting. However, Spieth has been dialed in with the rest of his game as he ranks 14th in SG: Around-the-Green, 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
There is no denying that Spieth's putter has been his enemy this season. That being said, he just needs a couple of those putts to drop Saturday to get under this total, which is exactly what happened Thursday.
I would play this number down to 70.5.
Xander Schauffele: Round 3 Under 70 Strokes
The other golfer I am backing Saturday is Xander Schauffele. Currently, Schauffele is T4 at 3-under par after shooting a 65 on Friday.
Like Spieth, Schauffele's game has been extremely dialed in outside of his putter. He ranks just 63rd amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting. However, Schauffele also ranks seventh in SG: Around-the-Green, third in SG: Approach-the-Green, 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Schauffele's current position on the leaderboard is a great indictment of how strong his game has been, especially considering his lack of success with the most important club in the bag. Now, imagine if some of those extra putts start falling on Saturday.
If that happens, which is what we are banking on here, then Schauffele should fly under this number.
I would play this total down to 69.5.
