We are back.
While I do enjoy the swing season quite a bit, the official start to the golf season every year, for me, is in Hawaii with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. There’s just something about watching the game’s best tee it up with the immaculate background that only the Hawaiian islands can provide, and I can’t wait to take it all in this week.
For those new to the matchup article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week for the Tournament of Champions. For every matchup, I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Bryson DeChambeau (-126) over Collin Morikawa (FanDuel)
My line: -152
The Plantation Course at Kapalua has the widest fairways these players will see all season on TOUR. I’m guessing you can figure out which player that will benefit more in this matchup.
DeChambeau should be able to grip it and subsequently rip it without much in terms of serious consequences this week.
My course regression model showed a heavy correlation to putting here. DeChambeau is an excellent putter, ranking sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 50 rounds. He has gained more than 1.5 strokes on the greens on average over his last 20 events.
Morikawa, while elite on the fairway, is 36th in this field over his last 50 rounds, losing 1.3 strokes on average during that same 20-round threshold.
I’m putting my faith in DeChambeau’s game off the tee and on the green in this one.
Daniel Berger (-126) over Jordan Spieth (FanDuel)
My line: -166
Berger and Spieth finished on completely different notes in 2021.
Berger was strong, finishing 11th at the Tour Championship before notching two top-10s in his final five events of the year. Spieth, meanwhile, saw his ball-striking tail off drastically after finishing second at the Open Championship in July. He didn’t recover, failing to crack the top 10 in any of his final five starts.
Also, Berger ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 recorded rounds, while Spieth ranks 34th.
Spieth does get the nod in terms of course history here, but the last time he played at Kapalua was back in 2018 so I don’t want to put too much stock into that.
Tony Finau (-130) over Marc Leishman (DraftKings)
My line: -176
There two are in totally different tiers as far as their quality right now.
While Finau is teetering on being among the TOUR’s elite, Leishman’s week-to-week inconsistency has plagued him for the better part of the last three years.
Kapalua’s wide fairways should play right into Finau’s hands, and he closed 2021 with six consecutive positive Strokes Gained: Approach performances.
Overall, I’m betting on the player who historically is better in this matchup.
