Every week during the PGA TOUR season, “The Gimme,” our streaming show on the GolfBet platform, will offer an exclusive prop bet with boosted odds that is available through BetMGM. Here is the breakdown for this week’s Gimme prop.
Sony Open
Charles Howell III — Top 10 (+400)
The list of achievements that Charles Howell III has put together over the past two decades at the Sony Open is nothing short of mind-boggling.
In 20 career starts, he’s never missed the cut. He owns 14 top-25s and 10 top-10s. He finished in third place twice and second place twice.
In what can only be termed a bittersweet microcosm of his career, the only thing Howell hasn’t done at Waialae is win, which only makes the next stat all the more impressive: He’s the only player to be the leading money-winner of a current, long-time PGA TOUR event who’s never won that event.
Considering the top-heavy paychecks for champions, that’s awfully hard to do. Howell unfairly gets a lot of backhanded compliments for “only” winning three times (so far), but his longevity at a high level should be celebrated.
OK, with all of that in mind, let’s get to the task at hand.
I have a feeling that CH3 will be a popular play this week based on recent history – and if you’re inclined to play him for a top-10, those boosted odds are looking pretty juicy.
There’s just one little problem: The man known as the Human ATM hasn’t exactly been a top-10 machine lately.
It’s been 14 starts since Howell’s last top-10 finish, a share of ninth place at The Players Championship last March. And despite some solid finishes at the Sony Open in the past few years – T-19 in 2021; T-12 in 2020 – he hasn’t posted a top-10 at Waialae in three years, has just one in the last four years and two in the last seven years.
So, while those 10 top-10s in 20 career starts suggest plenty of implied value at 4/1, his more recent history tells us that even at the boosted number, this price is just about right.
I don’t completely dislike CH3 this week. I think he’ll make the cut. He’s not a guy I’ll talk you out of, if you’re dead-set on playing him.
But I also don’t believe the top-10 equity is quite where I need it to be in order to take that bet.
The play: Fade the prop at +400.
