Click for full Sony Open odds as of Tuesday night via PointsBet.
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cameron Smith | +900 |
| Webb Simpson | +1400 |
| Sungjae Im | +1600 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1700 |
| Corey Conners | +2000 |
| Marc Leishman | +2000 |
| Abraham Ancer | +2500 |
| Kevin Na | +2800 |
| Talor Gooch | +2800 |
| Russell Henley | +3000 |
| Charles Howell III | +3300 |
| Harris English | +3300 |
| Kevin Kisner | +3300 |
| Billy Horschel | +4000 |
| Matt Jones | +4000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +4000 |
| Seamus Power | +4000 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +5000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +5000 |
| Cameron Davis | +6000 |
| Chris Kirk | +6000 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +6000 |
| Joel Dahmen | +6000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +6000 |
| Brendan Steele | +6600 |
| Brian Harman | +6600 |
| Brendon Todd | +7000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +7000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +7000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +7000 |
| Aaron Rai | +8000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +8000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +8000 |
| K.H. Lee | +8000 |
| Stewart Cink | +8000 |
| Branden Grace | +9000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +9000 |
| Tom Hoge | +10000 |
| Adam Long | +10000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +10000 |
| Takumi Kanaya | +10000 |
| Alex Smalley | +12500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +12500 |
| Brian Stuard | +12500 |
| Harry Higgs | +12500 |
| Hayden Buckley | +12500 |
| Henrik Norlander | +12500 |
| Robert Streb | +12500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +12500 |
| Russell Knox | +12500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +12500 |
| Zach Johnson | +12500 |
| Adam Schenk | +15000 |
| Chad Ramey | +15000 |
| Graeme McDowell | +15000 |
| Greyson Sigg | +15000 |
| Hank Lebioda | +15000 |
| Hudson Swafford | +15000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +15000 |
| John Huh | +15000 |
| Kramer Hickok | +15000 |
| Lucas Glover | +15000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +15000 |
| Max McGreevy | +15000 |
| Michael Thompson | +15000 |
| Nick Hardy | +15000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +15000 |
| Tyler Duncan | +15000 |
| Vincent Whaley | +15000 |
| Andrew D. Putnam | +17500 |
| Adam Svensson | +20000 |
| Brandon Wu | +20000 |
| Cameron Young | +20000 |
| Chan Kim | +20000 |
| Davis Riley | +20000 |
| Jim Furyk | +20000 |
| Keita Nakajima | +20000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +20000 |
| Nate Lashley | +20000 |
| Peter Malnati | +20000 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | +20000 |
| Roger Sloan | +20000 |
| Ryan Moore | +20000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +20000 |
| Sung Kang | +20000 |
| Andrew Novak | +25000 |
| Austin Cook | +25000 |
| David Lipsky | +25000 |
| David Skinns | +25000 |
| Dawie van der Walt | +25000 |
| Dylan Wu | +25000 |
| Jim Herman | +25000 |
| Jimmy Walker | +25000 |
| JT Poston | +25000 |
| Kevin Tway | +25000 |
| Lee Hodges | +25000 |
| Sam Ryder | +25000 |
| Sepp Straka | +25000 |
| Seth Reeves | +25000 |
| Ryan Armour | +25000 |
| Chase Seiffert | +25000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +25000 |
| Cameron Percy | +25000 |
| Beau Hossler | +30000 |
| Ben Kohles | +30000 |
| Chesson Hadley | +30000 |
| Hao Tong Li | +30000 |
| Jim Knous | +30000 |
| Joshua Creel | +30000 |
| Justin Lower | +30000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +30000 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | +30000 |
| Trey Mullinax | +30000 |
| Wesley Bryan | +30000 |
| Vaughn Taylor | +30000 |
| Austin Smotherman | +35000 |
| Brian Gay | +35000 |
| Curtis Thompson | +35000 |
| Jerry Kelly | +35000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +35000 |
| Luke Donald | +35000 |
| Richy Werenski | +35000 |
| Scott Gutschewski | +35000 |
| Bill Haas | +40000 |
| Brett Drewitt | +40000 |
| Callum Tarren | +40000 |
| Kelly Kraft | +40000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +40000 |
| Michael Gligic | +40000 |
| Paul Barjon | +40000 |
| William McGirt | +40000 |
| Garret Okamura | +50000 |
| Jared Wolfe | +50000 |
| Kevin Carll | +50000 |
| Martin Trainer | +50000 |
| Parker McLachlin | +50000 |
| Peter Jung | +50000 |
| Brent Grant | +50000 |
| Bo Hoag | +50000 |
| BJ Doucett | +50000 |
| Jared Sawada | +50000 |
| Koichiro Ishika | +50000 |
| Andy Ogletree | +50000 |
| Bo Van Pelt | +50000 |
Kapalua was left defenseless in the 2022 PGA Tour opener and the players took full advantage.
It's not too often your three bets will shoot a combined 59-under par and not scare cashing a ticket, but that's where we were last week with Cameron Smith setting a new scoring record at 34-under par.
Now on to the Sony Open, where most people are aware of the angle this week. The winner will usually come from the group who just finished up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Whether those four rounds help them get back into rhythm or they just happen to be better than the rest of the field because they're coming off a win in the season prior, they definitely have a edge here.
The Course
Length off the tee doesn’t play too much of a factor at Waialae Country Club, which measures just over 7,000 yards for a par 70. We’ve had shorter, inaccurate drivers like Smith, Patton Kizzire and Fabian Gomez come out on top in recent years. It’s really a second-shot golf course where a player who can get hot putting on Bermuda greens will come out on top.
It’s a vastly different course than Kapalua, which is more of a bomber’s paradise and favors strength from tee to green. Because of that, you shouldn’t just look at players who finished strong last week.
We saw that with a player like Kevin Na last year. He closed with a 79 and isn't really the best fit for Kapalua, but shaking off that competitive rust is important for this week heading to a course that better suits his style of play.
It tends to play pretty easy by TOUR standards unless the wind picks up. In five of the last six years, the winner needed to reach at least 20-under.
The Favorites
Smith opens at the top of the odds at +1100 fresh off the victory last week. Couple that with a win here in 2020 and it's easy to see why he's getting respect from the books this week.
Webb Simpson and Sungjae Im are next in line at +1600 after the withdraw of Bryson DeChambeau. Simpson is a strong fit here as well despite not playing last week and Im will likely be a popular selection in this range after a solid eighth-place finish last week where he gained strokes across the board.
Hideki Matsuyama would be where I'd look that if you want to back a favorite at +1800. He was fifth in approach last week and the other four players ahead of him aren't in the field this week. He wasn't as good of the tee as usual and that held him back. But with this course, that isn't as big of a factor.
The Mid-Tier
I'll start my card with Kevin Kisner at +3500 on DraftKings. Kisner played about as well as he can on a course with the length of Kapalua. He really struggled toward the end of 2021 with the approach. But his irons were back to normal last week and heading to a course that should fit his game, he's worth a look at this price.
We'll also go back to Seamus Power at +5000 on bet365. Power was on the card last week and played well to finish in 15th. He'll be a common selection in this range. He's backed up a hot summer with a good start to the 2021-22 season with four top 15s in his last five starts.
I'll also play Joel Dahmen at +7500 on FanDuel. The ball striking was solid last week, but he lost a little more than five strokes with the short game. He's another player who has been riding consistent form of late, missing just one cut since the start of June.
The Longshots
We'll open with Stewart Cink here at 100-1 on bet365. Cink finished 19th a year ago here after playing the TOC. This time, he played much better at the TOC, finishing 21st compared to 31st and had a strong ball-striking week. The putter let him down, but he's usually above-average on Bermuda with that club, so he could be primed to bounce back this week.
I'll finish up here with Branden Grace at 110/1 on bet365. Grace had a bad third round where he lost almost five strokes with the approach that threw off his numbers for the week. But he led the field with the irons in the opening and bounced back Sunday with a strong ball striking day to close out the event. At the price, I'll take a look here at a guy who has his other two PGA Tour wins on coastal tracks.
The Sony Card
- Kevin Kisner +3500 (.94 units)
- Seamus Power +5000 (.66 units)
- Joel Dahmen +7500 (.44 units)
- Stewart Cink +10000 (.33 units)
- Branden Grace +11000 (.3 units)
Total Stake: 2.67 units
