Scottie Scheffler shot a 66 on Friday and holds a two-stroke lead (19-under) following the second round of the Tour Championship.
Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 Tour Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 10x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout, and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
Tour Championship Round 3 PrizePicks Plays
Jon Rahm: Round 3 Under 67 Strokes
Entering the third round, Jon Rahm is in sole possession of third place at 13-under par after shooting a 63 on Friday. Shooting a 67 or lower in each of the first two rounds, we should expect Rahm's strong play to continue over the weekend.
Through the first two rounds, Rahm ranks third amongst the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in GIR%. Based on the past three winners at East Lake Golf Club, these three metrics are the greatest predictors of success.
We should not expect regression from Rahm on Saturday, especially over those three metrics. This season, Rahm ranks first on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in GIR%.
Rahm has been fantastic in these playoffs thus far, looking like he will end up with his third straight T10 finish. East Lake Golf Club is a track where Rahm has knocked on the doorstep each of the last two seasons, finishing second and fourth, respectively.
I would not play this total lower than 67.
Patrick Cantlay: Round 3 Under 67 Strokes
Another golfer we are backing on Saturday is Patrick Cantlay. Entering the third round, Cantlay is T4 at 12-under par after shooting a 66 in the second round.
For those who were able to watch, Cantlay's performance was amazing considering the guy could not make a putt to save his life. Cantlay's visible frustration on the greens was evident throughout his performance, and yet he still shot a 66.
While it was clear as day watching it, the metrics back up the assertion that Cantlay's putter is the only reason he is not in first or second. Amongst the field, he ranks second-to-last in SG: Putting.
However, he also ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in GIR%. Once those putts start falling — and they will — then Cantlay's score will improve greatly.
I would play this number down to 66.5.
Collin Morikawa: Round 3 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
We are also backing a few golfers off the tee box, starting with Collin Morikawa. Entering Saturday, Morikawa is T15 at 6-under par after shooting a 69 in the second round.
Despite a relatively disappointing day for Morikawa, his driver stayed strong, as he went over this total for the second straight round. The big stick has been the best club in Morikawa's bag this tournament, ranking third amongst the field in Driving Accuracy and 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
We should not expect regression in this area of Morikawa's game, which has been one of the sharpest aspects of his performance this year. On TOUR this season, Morikawa ranks 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 33rd in Driving Accuracy.
There is not a whole lot of pressure on Morikawa based on his current positioning, so we should expect to see another clean performance off the tee box.
I would play this total up to 10.
Corey Conners: Round 3 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit
The other golfer we are backing off the tee box is Corey Conners. It has been a tough tournament for Conners, who enters Saturday in 26th place at 1-under par.
However, the one constant aspect of his game that has been strong is the driver, as he has gone over this total in each of the first two rounds. This trend should not be shocking, as the driver has been Conners' best club all season.
On TOUR this year, Conners ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 21st in Driving Accuracy. Conners is toward the bottom of the leaderboard and has the advantage of playing loose over the weekend.
I would not play this number higher than 9.5.
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Under 7.5 Fairways Hit
We are also fading one guy off the tee box on Saturday: Cameron Smith. Entering the third round, Smith is T15 at 6-under par after shooting a 71 on Friday.
We saw some regression from Smith off the tee box between Rounds 1 and 2, going over this total on Thursday and under on Friday. We should expect his performance with the driver to look more like the one on Friday.
This season, Smith ranks just 134th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 135th in Driving Accuracy. His driver has been by far — and I mean by far — the worst aspect of Smith's otherwise stellar golf game this year.
Looking at the rest of his year, Smith ranks inside the top 40 on TOUR in every other metric. Will he have a better Saturday? I hope so. Will it be because of an improvement in his driver? Most likely not.
I would not play this total lower than 7.5.
