The five-shot lead Xander Schauffele had coming into the third round dropped to just a single shot over good friend and playing partner Patrick Cantlay. Schauffele finally dropped his first shot of the week at the par-4 14th and was tied for the lead just one hole later. He was able to quickly bounce back with birdies on two of his last three holes to maintain an advantage going into the final round.
The story of the day was really Patrick Cantlay as he fired a bogey-free round of 7-under 63. It was the round of the day by one shot over Sahith Theegala, who finished 14-under on the week and three shots back of the lead.
It'll be another important Sunday for Schauffele as he will have all of the eyes and pressure on him as he looks to close out his first solo TOUR win in more than three years. His data looks good, but this will be as much about internal fortitude and mental approach as anything with his play going into the final round.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
Patrick Cantlay is my pick to win on Sunday. He has been in this spot so many times and just knows how to get it done.
Cantlay really put together his first complete round on Saturday as he finally found his iron game, which was losing strokes on the week coming into the day. He gained more than three shots on the field in his round of 63 and the fact that he was in position to contend without his best stuff coming into the round says a lot about his game. He's the man to beat in my eyes going into Sunday.
One of the questions going into any Sunday is where we see the winning score. For me, it is likely to be at least 19-under, unless both of the final two guys really struggle. I'm not expecting that, which means a 65 — at minimum — for Theegala and he'd be my last stop for outrights tomorrow unless something comes open mid-round. I'll buy again on Theegala to back what we picked up at +5000 yesterday as he did just as we had hoped. His round of 64 was fantastic, but the bogey at the last hole could prove costly. I still like his chances with another round of experience in the final couple of groups to go out and fire at pins with the hopes of posting a number ahead of the superstars behind him.
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If I am looking down the board for someone who can make a final round charge into the top 10, I'd go first to what I think will be solid odds for Adam Svensson. The Canadian is just two shots from the top 10 as things stand and he's been firing on all cylinders with his irons, which is certainly the strength of his game. The other part that has me bullish on his ability to move further up the leaderboard is that he seems comfortable on these greens, having gained strokes on the field in each of the past two rounds with his flat stick. If he can do that again Sunday, he could go low with the way he is striking the ball.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
I took the stance last week of letting a player who hasn't won in a while prove they could get it done before I would give them the benefit of the doubt on Sunday. It didn't work out so well with Matt Fitzpatrick, but I'm going to run it back for the Travelers with Xander Schauffele.
There is nothing in the data that is going to show Schauffele as a fade for the final round. In fact, he's only made one bogey through 54-holes. My fade is solely on his inability to close in big situations time and again over the past few years on TOUR. The moment that sticks with me the most is from the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions where he three putted the final hole when a two putt was needed to win. He eventually lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas and said afterward that he had this weird feeling come over him in that moment and got "brick hands." It's stuck with me since that time and I think overall it is something in the back of his mind as the pressure to close one out continues to weigh on him. I know he'll get it done eventually, he's way too good of a player not to, but I'll let him prove it to me first.
Kevin Kisner keeps hanging around the top of the leaderboard despite his ball striking issues in two of the first three rounds. He again lost strokes to the field in both metrics on Saturday, but his white-hot putter kept him in the hunt for a top-5 finish. I just think the ball striking catches up with him at some stage and the late Sunday afternoon pressure may put a little too much on the putter for him to sustain his current position.
I am one of the biggest fans out there of KH Lee. I always have an eye out for him especially around TPC tracks, but I can't quite see him maintaining his spot near the top. He has only gained strokes on approach in one of his first three rounds and that round has really held him in position to contend for a top finish. This is also the course where he was in contention last year before a final round 80 dropped him to nearly last of the cut makers. I don't think that type of round is in the cards, but I am curious if it will be in the back of his mind tomorrow.
