Matthew Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris are currently T1 with a one-stroke lead at 4-under par following the third round of the U.S. Open. Now, we look forward to Sunday's fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the fourth round of the 2022 U.S. Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 8x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 1.5x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Jon Rahm: Round 4 Under 71 Strokes
Rahm is T3 at 4-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday. The third round 71 does not tell the full story for Rahm as he should have easily gone under this number before a meltdown on the 18th hole that led to a double-bogey.
Assuming he does not melt down on the final hole once again on Sunday, Rahm should get under this total. Rahm has been dominant across the board thus far in the tournament in every vital metric outside of SG: Approach-the-Green.
Amongst the remaining field, Rahm ranks third in SG: Putting, 26th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee and 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green. After shooting a 71 or less in each of the first three rounds, Rahm should be a good bet to continue his solid play on Sunday.
I would not play this total at anything lower than 71.
Patrick Reed: Round 4 Over 73 Strokes
Patrick Reed is T45 at 6-over par after shooting a 75 on Saturday. After successfully hitting this prop in the third round, I am going back to the well.
Reed's play around the green has been his saving grace thus far in this tournament as the rest of his game has been fade worthy. Amongst the remaining field, Reed ranks just 55th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 48th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 48th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Reed will be looking forward to making his debut on the LIV circuit as his game continues to dwindle and I do not see him having much success in the final round of this tournament.
I would play this number up to 73.5.
Justin Thomas: Round 4 Over 71 Strokes
This is another prop we successfully hit on Saturday and I'm taking it again. Thomas is T25 at 3-over par after shooting a 72 in the third round.
Like Reed, Thomas' play this tournament has been saved by only one aspect of his game — his iron play. Outside of that, the rest of Thomas' game has struggled mightily. He ranks just 51st amongst the remaining field in SG: Putting, 45th in SG: Around-the-Green and 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Thomas' frustration started early in the third round when rules officials did not grant him a free relief off of a water-drain, and the rest of his round struggled after that. With Thomas entering the third round already frustrated from his play not being at the level it has been all season, I do not expect him to have much confidence to bounce back in the fourth round with such a large deficit between him and the top of the leaderboard.
I would play this total up to 71.5.
Will Zalatoris: Round 4 Over 71 Strokes
As I mentioned in the introduction, Will Zalatoris is T1 at 4-under par after shooting a 67 on Saturday. This play is more of a fade of recent history than anything else as Zalatoris quite often finds himself in this position and doesn't finish the job.
Throughout his young career, Zalatoris has always seemed to find himself at the top of the leaderboard without being able to come away with a win. Outside of his withdrawal from The Open Championship in 2021, Zalatoris has finished inside the top eight — without a victory — in each of his past four major championships.
His metrics are great this tournament and there is no reason that he should not find himself at the top of the leaderboard by the end of this tournament. However, as a big fan of Zalatoris, I know the high likelihood that he will be unable to get it done once again down the stretch.
I would not play this number at anything higher than 71.
Brooks Koepka: Round 4 Over 72.5 Strokes
Brooks Koepka is T40 at 5-over after shooting a 75 on Saturday. Koepka struggled mightily in the third round and should have shot even higher if it was not for his great putting.
The rest of his game was brutal as he ranked 50th amongst the field in SG: Around-the-Green, 61st in SG: Approach-the-Green and 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green. While Koepka has dominated U.S. Open's in the past, it appears his troubled year will continue Sunday as he is way too far back to mount a comeback.
I would not play this total above 72.5.
