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Rory McIlroy (+1100)
For those who are new here, a lesson — and for those who aren’t, a reminder: Picking players for OADs is as much about game theory as it is about the picks themselves.
You like Rory this week? So do I — and so does everyone else in your pool. It’s nearly impossible to dislike a guy riding a heater right now, one who’s often shown in the past that when he gets hot, he usually stays hot.
The decision, of course, is whether you’re near the top and trying to give everyone else the Heisman or toward the bottom and playing catch-up. He’s a smart pick for the former but might be too chalky for the latter.
As for the betting markets, well, that price is getting shorter virtually by the minute, but we’re only a year removed from the tourney favorite in Jon Rahm — like Rory, also the most obvious play on the board — winning this one, so if you love it, don’t be scared to get after it.
Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
I promise, they’re not all going to be chalky OAD selections, but it’s worth pointing out that it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the reigning Masters champion might ultimately find more success at the U.S Open, where he was low amateur in 2017 and finished T7 at Torrey Pines last year.
Scheffler is certainly running hot right now, but with fellow poolsters blinded by the exploits of Rory and JT, perhaps Scottie will see lower ownership percentages than he deserves.
Will Zalatoris (+3000)
The same goes for Zalatoris, who now has runner-up finishes at both the Masters and the PGA Championship over the last two years, but his ball-striking might someday render him a better fit for the U.S. Open than the others. If nothing else, he’s just really good at major championships, sort of following in the recent footsteps of Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele as guys who tend to play their best golf in the biggest events.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000)
There occurred a shift in the balance of power atop perhaps the PGA TOUR’s most telling statistic this week. With his victory in Canada, McIlroy usurped Fitzpatrick for the top spot in the Strokes Gained: Total category, a stat which the Englishman has led for most of the past several months.
Even so, Fitzpatrick is still second — and there aren’t any better ways to measure which players are playing the best golf than this one. Throw in the fact that he won the U.S. Amateur right at this very course back in 2013 and often plays his best golf when the total score is closer in relation to par, and I’d expect him to not only be a popular play, but a very smart one this week.
Cameron Young (+6500)
There are those who will bet Young this week and those who will play him in DFS, but very few will use a valuable OAD selection on a rookie that they’re somehow still not completely sure about. Use this knowledge to your advantage, because Young is an absolute stud, with five top-three finishes in his freshman campaign so far.
Maybe I’m wrong here, but when it comes to the majors, OADers tend to rely on the proven commodities more than the up-and-comers, but his T3 at the PGA Championship showed he’s hardly afraid of the bigger moment.
Justin Rose (+8000)
It’s a bit difficult to recommend Rose in the betting market, considering he was 80-1 before last week’s RBC Canadian Open and now opens at the same number in an obviously much deeper field. Of course, that’s what happens when you post a final-round 10-under 60 that includes three bogeys.
Really, Rose wasn’t too far off from making some serious history in Canada on Sunday. He obviously knows what it takes to get it done on a U.S. Open track — especially a short, tight track, as one could suggest there are similarities between Merion, where he won in 2013, and The Country Club. If you like playing a longshot with a pedigree and some momentum, he’s your guy.
