2022 U.S. Open Round 2 Odds & Picks: Buy the Stars Down the Leaderboard

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The lead into the year's third major seemed to take forever this week as the focus around the tours off the course took away from some of the natural build up for one of the season's biggest tournaments. It mostly settled down on Thursday though as the attention turned to the course as some of the top players in the world teed it up at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass.

Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa took center stage from the morning wave as the latter looked like the player who won a major championship in each of the past two years. Morikawa got to 3-under in his opening nine holes before stumbling a bit on the way in and finishing with a 1-under 69. McIlroy's round really built up after he made the turn, though he would drop his only shot on his final hole of the day to finish tied with several others at 3-under. They would all be bested in the afternoon by Adam Hadwin, who got hot to close his opening nine and made it in with an impressive 4-under 66. He will start Friday with a one shot edge over five players.

One of the things that makes the U.S. Open so special is the number of lesser known, or forgotten, names who can contend early in the week. Players like David Lingmerth, Callum Tarren and MJ Daffue all held at least a share of the lead during the opening day and they each matched McIlroy to start the week. They'll be the underdog stories we will root for going into Friday, but they are unlikely to make the buy list as we see who stacks up best heading into Round 2.

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Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2

It's hard not to like what we saw from Dustin Johnson in the opening round. He was certainly one of the biggest question marks coming into the week and was listed at long odds because he really hasn't played well this year. However, he came out with some good form on Friday and shot a 2-under 68.

Johnson's round was boosted by 3.21 SG: Tee-to-Green, the bulk of which came on approach and around the greens. I am actually more bullish on the two time major winner because he didn't have his best club in the bag working off the tee as he lost strokes to the field in that metric.

DJ will get to go right back out on Friday morning, looking to keep the momentum going and trying to get in position for a late tee time on Saturday. I'd argue we are still getting some value at +2000 for a player of his caliber going into Friday just two shots back of the lead.

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I'm going to dig deep going into the second round with everyone so bunched, but I'll stay with some of the top talents in the world and look at Scottie Scheffler. He finished his opening round at even par, which happened by virtue of consecutive birdies to end the day.

Scheffler has been known to start a little slower in some of his big wins this year with Saturday morning moves being a key piece of his victories at both the Waste Management and Arnold Palmer. I think he is likely to start that move a day early this week with the nice morning conditions on Friday and some good momentum to close out Thursday. We aren't getting much of an odds boost as he matches Johnson at +2000 despite being two shots further back.

My final buy, Hideki Matsuyama, is another high-class player who started the week with some question marks. He's had an interesting year as he won early at the Sony Open then ran into some injury problems before an odd DQ situation at the Memorial. The 2021 Masters Champion has continued to play good golf when he's been on the course for full tournaments and he showed some of that form Thursday.

Matsuyama gained better than three strokes on the field with his irons in the opening round, which ranked fourth for the day. He was just average to below average with the rest of his play, but he's a guy who is one of the best all-around players tee to green. I expect we'll see those other aspects of his game improve throughout the week and if he can get the putter going, he can certainly contend for his second major.

Hideki is listed a little higher than where he started on BetMGM at +5000. He's worth a flyer from four shots back as he can certainly climb into the mix with a solid Round 2.

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3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2

There was a time several years ago where I had a nearly weekly interest in David Lingmerth. He was always a player I thought could find his way into the mix at times, but he wasn't anywhere near my radar for this U.S. Open. He has fought injuries since his 2015 Memorial win and had to work his way through qualifying to make it into this tournament.

I'd love to see him continue to channel that great play from the past this week, but the numbers tell me that his opening round was a bit of smoke and mirrors. Lingmerth gained less than a stroke on the field tee to green on Thursday, losing a bit on approach and relying almost entirely on the flat stick. He was the best putter in the field for the round with nearly five SG: Putting. It just isn't sustainable for him to rely that heavily on his putter the rest of the way — especially as this course gets more difficult heading into the weekend.

Another name that not many expected to see near the first page of the leaderboard after the opening round is Hayden Buckley. He started out strong in the morning and was able to get in the house with a 2-under 68. He'll have to play in the afternoon on Friday, which may prove to be more difficult as the course dries out.

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My fade on Buckley is more about the form we have seen from him this year than anything in particular from his opening round. He has missed five of the past six cuts on TOUR and the one he did make ended with a 61st-place finish in a weak field in Mexico. This tournament is about as far away as it can be from that event South of the Border and although he started well on Thursday, there's just nothing to lean on to expect it to continue into Friday or the weekend.

I really started to like Jason Kokrak as the tournament got closer this week, though I fell short of adding him to my card. He certainly put together a round that could have him in contention going into the weekend, but it's pretty shocking the way he did it.

Kokrak ranked second in the field in SG: Around-the-Green on Thursday, beating the field by better than three strokes in that metric. This category is by far the worst of his game as he ranks 162nd on TOUR. His 1-under 69 came while losing strokes to the field with his ball striking and that isn't a recipe for success moving forward.

StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 1