2022 U.S. Open Odds & Picks: Sam Burns in Position Once Again

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If we thought the leaderboard last weekend was star studded, boy are we in for a treat at this week's U.S. Open. Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen lead the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm by one shot, with Masters Champion Scottie Scheffler lurking just one shot further back.

The course at The Country Club in Brookline, MA proved difficult once again on Friday as the field averaged more than two shots over par for the round. Morikawa shot the round of the day with a 4-under 66, while Rahm, Scheffler, Sam Burns and Brooks Koepka shot 67s.

Conditions should only get tougher throughout the weekend as the course continues to dry out and the USGA pushes it to its limits as they do every year at this time. We stuck to the studs with our Thursday night buys and I think we can expect the cream to continue to rise to the top over the next 36-holes.

Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

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3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3

The best value I see on the board going into the weekend is with Sam Burns at +2000 on BetMGM. It's really hard to find anything better than that and frankly I don't want to have to pay too much in a tournament that seems set up for one of the elites at the top of the leaderboard.

Burns had the second best round of the day on Friday as he was third best in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. He gained 4.30 shots from the more difficult morning wave and did it with balance throughout his bag. Burns turned around his issues off the tee to gain strokes there and stepped up with more than two shots gained on approach. He will look to keep that rolling going into the weekend and, at just three shots back, he is a high-quality player who knows how to win as he seeks his fourth victory of the season.

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I've always been pretty open about my hesitation to bet Xander Schauffele in outright markets. His odds don't generally reflect a player who has failed to close time and again, but I will say that win may come eventually in a spot where he is playing from behind and could post a number without the full pressure of the lead. It's hard to know if that spot will be Sunday, but at +3000 he's worth consideration as he continues to improve throughout his round. I like him better for another of his signature top 5 types of finishes and that's where I would look first when those odds come out before the start of Round 3.

The one longshot value I see is with Keegan Bradley, who is listed at +8000 on DraftKings and is only four shots back. We know that Bradley can still show some of the best ball striking on TOUR when he's on top of his game and he has also been much better with the flatstick this season. To be clear, he still has his lows on the greens, but there appears to be much more upside and that is where a dart at these odds could give us an out into Sunday.

Bradley was the second best player in the field with his irons on Friday, gaining 4.25 shots on approach. He carved out a 1-under round leaning heavily on that category as he lost strokes to the field in every other metric. If he can at least get the other half of his ball striking going and find the putter a bit on Saturday, he could certainly move into contention for the final round and that is all we are asking for at this number.

3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3

I've got to take a stand on someone at some point and going into Round 3 I'm going to do that with Jon Rahm. I have watched a large majority of his play through the first two days and he has done what he needs to do to save his score around this course, but he certainly hasn't been overly sharp. In the first round, his driver started to get away from him down the stretch and a couple of lucky breaks with pull-hooks off the tee salvaged some shots that could've gotten away from him. The best example was on the 18th when a young kid ran off with his ball, allowing for a free drop away from the grandstand that resulted in a closing birdie.

Friday's round was a great score at 3-under, but he had to claw his way for par time and again to make it happen. While that is certainly a recipe for success at the U.S. Open, he can't expect to maintain his spot near the top while losing strokes to the field on approach. I don't think Rahm will be able to keep leaning on the putter to contend into Sunday and I'll put the fade in on him as the ball striking is off just enough to concern me this weekend.

The weekend at the U.S. Open will be a pressure unlike anything Nick Hardy has faced on the golf course in his career. He is T8 after a great round on Friday morning, but for a player with just one top-15 finish in his PGA Tour career, I am going to fade him in this moment.

Hardy also has the second lowest tee-to-green numbers of the players in the top 10, with only McIlroy showing up lower. The Illinois grad has gained 4.40 shots on the greens through the first two rounds, with nearly an even split across those days. Those putts get a little tougher on the weekend at a major and I think we may see him start to slip on Saturday, but he is a talented player to watch now and going forward.

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My final fade going into Saturday is with a player who took the course by storm early Friday. MJ Daffue was entertaining everyone as he dropped birdie bombs and even hit one off the deck of the hospitality tent in the second round. He got out to 6-under at one point in the round, but fell off as he came home and I expect that negative momentum may continue into the weekend.

Daffue lost strokes to the field in all tee-to-green metrics Friday, only gaining with his putter. That is a troublesome stat for a player currently within the top 20 and I just don't see him staying there unless he finds his ball striking again.

StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 2