Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen are currently T1 with a one-stroke lead at 5-under par following the second round of the U.S. Open. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 U.S. Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Collin Morikawa: Round 3 Under 70.5 Strokes
As I mentioned above, Morikawa is T1 at 5-under par after shooting a 66 on Friday. After successfully hitting this prop in that round, I am going back to the well.
Morikawa is deservedly at the top of the leaderboard as he ranks first amongst the remaining field in totalstrokes gained — his game has been dominant across the board. He currently ranks inside the top 27 in every vital metric thus far, including SG: Putting, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Approach-the-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green.
This feat is extremely impressive as he dialed in and corrected some of his mistakes from the first round. Between rounds one and two, Morikawa saw a 128% increase in SG: Putting, a 1567% increase in SG: Approach-the-Green and a 31% increase in SG: Tee-to-Green.
I do not expect to see regression from Morikawa in the third round as he's proven to be getting better as the tournament progresses.
I would play this total down to 70.
Jon Rahm: Round 3 Under 70.5 Strokes
This prop is another successful hit from the second round that I am taking again. Currently, Rahm is T3 at 4-under par after shooting a 67 on Friday.
Like Morikawa, Rahm's game has been dominant across the board. Outside of SG: Approach-the-Green, Rahm ranks inside the top 20 in every vital metric thus far, including SG: Putting, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green.
Also like Morikawa, Rahm enters the weekend with momentum as his play was much better in the second round. Between rounds one and two, Rahm saw an 858% increase in SG: Putting, a 59% increase in SG: Around-the-Green and a 32% increase in total strokes gained.
I would play this number down to 70.
Scottie Scheffler: Round 3 Under 70.5 Strokes
The last guy I am backing in this third round is Scottie Scheffler. The world's number one ranked golfer is T8 at 3-under par after shooting a 67 on Friday.
Scheffler caught fire on the back nine in the second round as he shot a 31 after a four-hole stretch that saw two birdies and an eagle. It is absolutely astonishing that Scheffler did not finish with a lower score as he was burning edges with his putts all afternoon, a trend that is not sustainable.
Those putts will start to fall and when they do, the rest of the field will need to watch out. Outside of his putting, Scheffler has dominated the field in the other key metrics as he ranks first in SG: Approach-the-Green, fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Assuming we see that positive regression from his putting, I expect to see Scheffler enter the clubhouse with the lead on Saturday.
I would play this total down to 70.
Justin Thomas: Round 3 Over 70.5 Strokes
I am also fading a few golfers on Saturday, starting with Justin Thomas. Currently, Thomas is T31 at 1-over par after shooting a 72 on Friday.
Thomas has been saved by his approach game thus far in the tournament. However, the rest of his metrics suggest that regression is looming. While Thomas ranks 10th amongst the remaining field in SG: Approach-the-Green, he ranks just 47th in SG: Putting, 57th in SG: Around-the-Green, 39th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 28th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Having no momentum entering the weekend after a poor second round, we could see another troubled outing for Thomas. Between rounds one and two, Thomas saw a 186% decrease in SG: Putting, a 14% decrease in SG: Around-the-Green, a 61% decrease in SG: Approach-the-Green and a 37% decrease in SG: Tee-to-Green.
I would play this number up to 71.
Patrick Reed: Round 3 Over 72.5 Strokes
The other golfer I am fading on Saturday is Patrick Reed. Currently, Reed is T31 at 1-over par after shooting a 71 on Friday.
Reed's putter has been his saving grace thus far as the rest of his game has been fade-worthy. Amongst the remaining field, Reed ranks just 29th in SG: Around-the-Green, 49th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 40th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 46th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Like Thomas, Reed enters the weekend with absolutely no momentum as his metrics dropped across the board. Between rounds one and two, Reed saw a 122% decrease in SG: Around-the-Green, a 67% decrease in SG: Approach-the-Green, a 72% decrease in SG: Off-the-Tee and a 98% decrease in SG: Tee-to-Green.
I would not play this total at anything higher than 72.5.
