U.S. Open 2022 Odds & Expert Picks: 3 Betting Targets, Including Max Homa

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With the big names at the top of the board in Canada, it was never going to be my week there. Rory McIlroy ended up defending his title as the favorite.

Now we'll head off to the third major of the year: the U.S. Open.

As with many of the majors, most of my bets are in pretty early during the year. I then just hope the form carries over and the injury bug stays away.

But we'll take a fresh look at the odds this week and see which players still have some value coming in.

The Course

The Country Club in Brookline is expected to offer a tough test, as is the norm with the USGA. It's set to play over 7,200 yards for a Par 70. It's a little shorter than some of the behemoths we've seen in the past for this event, which could keep guys without the ability to bomb it off the tee in play this week.

The rough is expected to be the main defense this week — along with small greens — so it's likely not to be just a straight forward bomb-and-gouge event, as we've seen a few times in the past. Players will definitely have to be in control both off the tee and with the irons.

It's not a course we've seen often. It hasn't held the U.S. Open since 1988.

Most recently, the 2013 U.S. Amateur was held here and won by Matthew Fitzpatrick. Corey Conners reached the semifinals that week, and Scottie Scheffler advanced to the quarterfinals. Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau also played well enough to advance out of stroke play and win a match.

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The Favorites

Four names have separated themselves from the pack at the top of the board. McIlroy is set to go off as the favorite (+1000) after his win last week. He's been inside the top 10 in four of his five events dating back to the Masters, with no finish worse than 18th.

Justin Thomas is right behind him at +1200. Thomas had the missed cut following his win at the PGA, but has been inside the top five two other times since the start of May.

Jon Rahm and Scheffler close out this upper tier at +1400.

We haven't seen a whole lot of Rahm recently. He hasn't played back-to-back weeks since March. He got the win in Mexico, but his game just looks slightly off at times, which has kept him from adding an extra victory or two this year.

Everyone knows what Scheffler has been doing this season. He's looked mortal since his Masters win, though, really only contending once in his last five starts, including his playoff loss at Colonial.

But that being said, he's still been inside the top 20 in four of those five events, with a missed cut coming at the PGA on the bad end of a weather draw.

We see a large group of players make up the +2000s, including Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa.

Smith and Fitzpatrick were added early in the year, and I really wouldn't jump in at this range now.

Of the group, Cantlay gets the most attention from me. He's available at +2500 pretty much everywhere. I don't know how popular he'll be since he burned so many people at the PGA, but besides that missed cut, he's finished top-three in his last three starts.

The +2500 number is pretty widely available, so it's one that you can be patient with and see if it drifts later in the week.

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The Mid Tier

My focus here will be on three players: Max Homa, Sungjae Im and Daniel Berger. All three are probably going to be popular plays, so I doubt there will be much drift during the week.

Homa was mentioned in our first click post. He just continues to string solid results together. He's still available at +5000 on BetMGM. He has the all-around game to be successful here, and his game has been improving in majors as well, marked by a 13th last month at the PGA.

Berger is another guy I like at +5000, as well. He's coming off a fifth-place finish at the Memorial, so his game is heading in the right direction.

He's also had some success with past USGA set ups, finishing inside the top 10 twice at the U.S. Open.

Berger is a guy I tend to shy away from when distance trumps everything, but I don't think this will be one of those majors.

Im is the last one here at +4000, and he was a guy I played at a much bigger number a few months ago. He's still not too bad in this range. He's been inside the top 25 his last five starts, and his ball-striking has really been what has carried him in recent weeks.

The Longshots

This really isn't an event to dig too deep for a winner. We'd have to go back over a decade to Lucas Glover in 2009 to find a player that was triple digits heading into the week. The cream usually rises to the top here.

If you want to deep dive for some top-20 or 40 type plays, I'd look at a couple of guys playing up from the Korn Ferry Tour. MJ Daffue and Taylor Montgomery both made it through qualifying and have done enough this season to lock up PGA TOUR cards in the fall. Their form is solid.

Montgomery made the cut last year and finished 57th, as well. The name recognition isn't there and you'll likely find some solid prices on them, but they've both played very good golf for a few months now. Making a cut and having a decent weekend is possible for both.

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