2022 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Jon Rahm, 3 More Fits at The Country Club

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The PGA TOUR season has reached the third major of the year, as the U.S. Open returns to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts for the first time since 1988.

The historic course was also host to the 1999 Ryder Cup in which the Americans stunned the Europeans with a comeback victory.

The Country Club is a Par 70 measuring 7,264 yards, which is just 254 yards longer than it was in 1988.

The Gil Hanse design is a classical layout that will feature Bentgrass greens.

The U.S. Open field will feature 156 of the best players in the world. The only notable players that won't be teeing it up this week are Tiger Woods and Paul Casey, who are both out due to injury.

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Past Winners at U.S. Open

• 2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
• 2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
• 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
• 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5)
• 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9)
• 2013: Justin Rose (+1)
• 2012: Webb Simpson (+1)

Five Key Stats for The Country Club

Let's take a look at six key metrics for The Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

As usual, Strokes Gained: Approach will be a major factor at the U.S. Open. The greens at The Country Club are small by TOUR standards and have an average size of 4,388 square feet.

The length of the approach shots won’t seem daunting in terms of distance, but the layout of the holes can be devastatingly difficult for even the best players in the world.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Sam Burns (+25.7) (+2800)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+25.2) (+1400)
3. Max Homa (+24.3) (+5000)
4. Harold Varner III (+23.8) (+10000)
5. Kevin Na (+23.8) (+15000)

2. Good Drives Gained

The rough at The Country Club will be penal, and that may be an understatement. The rough is thick, gnarly and perhaps worst of all: unpredictable.

The course will still play long, and with treacherous pin locations, gaining distance off the tee will be important.

Good Drives Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Mito Pereira (+38.8) (+6600)
2. Shane Lowry (+29.2) (+3300)
3. Xander Schauffele (+28.7) (+2200)
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+27.8) (+2500)
5. Corey Conners (+22.5) (+6600)

3. Green in Regulation Gained

The key to any U.S. Open is the ability to hit greens in regulation. Golfers who are scrambling on a regular basis won’t be able to get away with it for prolonged stretches at such a difficult course.

Greens in Regulation Gained Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+44.6) (+1100)
2. Jon Rahm (+35.3) (+1400)
3. Mito Pereira (+31.8) (+6600)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+30.9) (+1400)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+30.4) (+2500)

4. Strokes Gained: Total (Difficult Courses)

Don’t be fooled by its 7,264-yard length, this Gil Hanse design will play exceedingly difficult. The Country Club will challenge the players in all facets of their game.

Strokes Gained: Total (Difficult Courses)

1. Rory McIlroy (+65.0) (+1100)
2. Cameron Smith (+53.9) (+2200)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+53.4) (+1400)
4. Shane Lowry (+52.4) (+3300)
5. Jon Rahm (+50.0) (+1400)

5. Strokes Gained: Total (Northeast)

There seems to be a major carryover for players who consistently play well in the Northeast. The aesthetics and the agronomy are a big part of what makes Northeast golf unique.

Strokes Gained: Total (Northeast) Over Past 36 Rounds

1. Dustin Johnson (+87.9) (+1000)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (+77.5) (+100000)
3. Brooks Koepka (+71.5) (+5000)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+53.6) (+7000)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+51.1) (+5000)

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U.S. Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Good Drives Gained (22%), Greens in Regulation Gained (15%), Strokes Gained: Total Difficult Courses (21%) and SG: Total (Northeast) (15%).

1. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
2. Shane Lowry  (+3300)
3. Mito Pereira (+6600)
4. Xander Schauffele (+2200)
5. Jon Rahm (+1400)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
7. Sam Burns(+2800)
8. Will Zalatoris  (+2500)
9. Corey Conners (+6600)
10. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)
11. Tony Finau (+3300)
12. Tommy Fleetwood (+5000)
13. Billy Horschel (+5000)
14. Hideki Matusyama (+4000)
15. Dustin Johnson (+4000)

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2022 U.S. Open Best Bets

Jon Rahm +1600

The last time I can remember Jon Rahm being +1600 or better was the 2020 Memorial Tournament, which he won. You don't often hear that a player in this price range is a "value" play, but this is absolutely one.

Despite his relative struggles this season, Rahm still is the best golfer in the world off the tee. At a U.S. Open, long and straight is the recipe for success, and he's as long and straight as it gets.

The Spaniard has only lost strokes off the tee in one of his past 42 measured events on TOUR. That event was his most recent start at the Memorial, which I feel comfortable labeling as an outlier.

The Country Club is going to play incredibly challenging off the tee. Rahm is simply the most reliable player off the tee in the world, and I trust him to put himself in the optimal position for his second shot more times than not.

The 27-year-old would be the first to tell you it's been a down year relative to his expectations. But Rahm's "down year" still places him first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and second in Greens in Regulation Gained in his past 24 rounds.

Jordan Spieth +2800

Just last month, Jordan Spieth was one of the most popular bets to win the PGA Championship. Now, it seems as if he's under the radar for the U.S. Open.

While it may not appear so at first, Spieth is a magnificent fit at The Country Club.

Unlike years past, 2022 has seen the former U.S. Open champion become very reliable off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, Spieth ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

In addition to his terrific ball striking, Spieth has been as reliable as ever around the green. The Country Club has some of the smallest greens we've ever seen at a major championship, and even the best players in the world will be missing plenty of greens this week.

Therefore, around-the-green game is going to be a major factor. Spieth ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

The 28-year-old has had plenty of success in the Northeast. He finished third at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black, second at TPC Boston in 2017 and won the 2017 Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands.

It's been almost five years since Spieth has won a major championship, but he seems to be peaking just in time to claim another U.S. Open trophy.

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Dustin Johnson +4000

Dustin Johnson has made plenty of headlines of late, but none of them have to do with his golf game. Despite his resignation from the PGA TOUR, DJ is ready to tee it up at The Country Club with eyes on his second U.S. Open victory.

Throughout his career, Johnson has been excellent in the U.S Open. In 14 career starts, the 37-year-old has seven top-20 finishes, including a win in 2016 at Oakmont. He’s also finished in the top six in five of his past eight U.S. Open starts. He’s quite simply one of the best U.S. Open players on the planet.

The Country Club will be an ideal fit for DJ. The course will require distance and accuracy, two things he has more of compared to much of the field when he’s at his best.

Johnson has also had a lot of success in the Northeast throughout his career. In addition to his win at Oakmont (Pennsylvania), he won the 2020 Northern Trust (Massachusetts) and the 2020 Travelers Championship (Connecticut), along with plenty of other top-five finishes in the area.

DJ ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total at courses in the Northeast in his past 36 rounds by a wide margin.

Negative publicity can have a positive impact on odds in the golf betting world. The unpopular move to LIV — combined with recent somewhat uninspiring play — has resulted in a “bet the number” scenario on DJ.

Joaquin Niemann +4000

U.S. Opens tend to turn into a test of total driving. The Country Club has rough that will be exceedingly penal, but the layout of the course will make distance off the tee incredibly important, as well.

Joaquin Niemann is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world. The Chilean ranks 12th in the field in his past 24 rounds in Good Drives Gained, which factors in all aspects of driving. He also ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which has been a true indicator of U.S. Open winners in the past.

It can be debated whether or not Niemann is ready to win his first major championship at 23 years old, but it must be considered that seven of the past 10 U.S. Open champions have been first-time major winners.

His wire-to-wire victory at Riviera certainly should inspire some confidence in terms of his ability to win under pressure and in an elite field. “The Wonder Kid” is on the verge of superstardom and a major championship victory would propel him into the elite tier of golfers.

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