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The PGA Tour season goes by way too fast. It's hard to believe that the year's third major is already upon us, but this is a glass half-full type of article. This is an amazing week to be a sports fan — the NBA Finals is going to wrap up on Thursday or Sunday, the Stanley Cup gets underway on Wednesday, and the U.S. Open kicks off on Thursday.
If you are new to golf betting, the only major that stays at the same course every year is the Masters. The U.S. Open is held at a different course each year and we should have a treat on our hands with The Country Club at Brookline. It's a classical course that looks like a true challenge — narrow fairways, penalizing rough, thick fescue, and tiny greens. To make it even more challenging, there are 20+ MPH gusts in the forecast for all four days of the events.
The course itself is a par 70 that measures 7,264 yards. The length doesn't look overly daunting on the surface, but it is somewhat hidden by the fact that there is a par 4 that measures 310 yards and a par 3 that measures 131 yards. In total, there are eight par 4s that measure over 450 yards and three par 3s that measure over 190 yards. I see a lot of long irons being hit this week.
It's always a challenge to know the skillset needed to win at a new course (at least one we haven't seen since 1988), but the USGA likes to set up the U.S. Open course the same way each year. The holes are long, the rough is thick, and the greens are tough to hit.
I'm looking for good total drivers of the ball, good iron players, and good scramblers. It sounds easy enough, but very few golfers check all of those boxes.
Favorite Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick Winner w/out Rory, JT, Rahm, Xander, & Scheffler (+1800)
My model has long been a big fan of Fitzpatrick and consequently, so have I. Unfortunately, he has yet to pick up a win on the PGA Tour. While I've lost a lot of units betting him to win outright, I've more than made up for it with placement bets on him.
I love the idea of betting him to have the best score if you take out the five favorites. He could potentially finish second, third or fourth and still cash this bet.
Fitzpatrick has gained serious distance off the tee this season, gaining strokes on approach in 11 straight events, and his short game is about as good as anyone's on TOUR.
For what it's worth, he also won the U.S. Amateur here in 2013. While that doesn't mean much this week, perhaps he'll have some good vibes here.
Favorite Longshot Bet: Jon Rahm win + Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+3670)
We only get four majors a year, so I like to juice up my bets on the favorites.
Rahm is the best driver of the ball in the world, so it's no surprise that he's had success at the U.S. Open in his career. He has hit more drives of 310 yards than anyone on tour this season and on those attempts, he's hit the fairways 69% of the time. That's nothing short of incredible. Rahm's short game has let him down this season, but he gained 5.6 strokes during his win in Mexico and gained 7.5 strokes at Muirfield Village.
As for Schauffele, he loves the U.S. Open. He has played in five of them and has finished in the top 10 every time. He has no weakness in his game and should excel in these tough scoring conditions.
Favorite DFS Value: Brian Harman: $7,000 DraftKings / $8,600 FanDuel
I didn't want to take the easy way out and put Sungjae Im as my favorite value. While he's a strong option in all formats, he will likely be one of the highest owned golfers of the week.
Harman should fly under the radar because he's not a bomber off the tee. What he lacks in distance, he makes up for in accuracy. Believe it or not, the lefty is 22nd in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last three months. His irons have been heating up and he has one of the best short games on the PGA TOUR.
Harman has also performed quite well at U.S. Opens in the past, posting finishes of T19, T38, T36 and T2 in his last four starts.
Good luck!
