Click arrow to expand 2022 Valero Texas Open odds via PointsBet
2022 Valero Texas Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Corey Conners | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 |
| Chris Kirk | +2500 |
| Gary Woodland | +2500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2800 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2800 |
| Adam Hadwin | +3300 |
| Tony Finau | +3300 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
| Davis Riley | +4000 |
| Jason Day | +5000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +5000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +5000 |
| Luke List | +5500 |
| Mito Guillermo Pereira | +6000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +6000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +6000 |
| Russell Knox | +6600 |
| Brendan Steele | +7000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +7000 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +7000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +7000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +7000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +7000 |
| Doug Ghim | +7500 |
| Denny McCarthy | +8000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +8000 |
| Rasmus Højgaard | +8000 |
| Charles Howell III | +9000 |
| Ian Poulter | +9000 |
| Lanto Griffin | +9000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | +9000 |
| Alex Smalley | +10000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | +10000 |
| Martin Laird | +10000 |
| Matt Jones | +10000 |
| Nick Taylor | +10000 |
| Pat Perez | +10000 |
| Scott Stallings | +10000 |
| Takumi Kanaya | +10000 |
| Taylor Moore | +10000 |
| Troy Merritt | +10000 |
| Peter Uihlein | +10000 |
| Anirban Lahiri | +12500 |
| Beau Hossler | +12500 |
| Branden Grace | +12500 |
| Brian Stuard | +12500 |
| Chad Ramey | +12500 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | +12500 |
| David Lipsky | +12500 |
| J. J. Spaun | +12500 |
| Kramer Hickok | +12500 |
| Lee Westwood | +12500 |
| Lucas Glover | +12500 |
| Matthias Schwab | +12500 |
| Richard Bland | +12500 |
| Adam Long | +15000 |
| Andrew D. Putnam | +15000 |
| Brendon Todd | +15000 |
| Doc Redman | +15000 |
| Greyson Sigg | +15000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +15000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +15000 |
| Nate Lashley | +15000 |
| Sam Ryder | +15000 |
| Vincent Whaley | +15000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +15000 |
| Cameron Champ | +17500 |
| Danny Lee | +17500 |
| Harry Higgs | +17500 |
| Aaron Rai | +20000 |
| Adam Schenk | +20000 |
| Adam Svensson | +20000 |
| Andrew Novak | +20000 |
| Austin Smotherman | +20000 |
| Brandon Hagy | +20000 |
| Chez Reavie | +20000 |
| Hank Lebioda | +20000 |
| Hayden Buckley | +20000 |
| Hudson Swafford | +20000 |
| Jimmy Walker | +20000 |
| JT Poston | +20000 |
| Kevin Chappell | +20000 |
| Kevin Tway | +20000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +20000 |
| Lee Hodges | +20000 |
| Nick Hardy | +20000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +20000 |
| Robert Streb | +20000 |
| Tyler Duncan | +20000 |
| Zach Johnson | +20000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +25000 |
| Garrick Higgo | +25000 |
| Graeme McDowell | +25000 |
| Henrik Stenson | +25000 |
| John Huh | +25000 |
| Justin Lower | +25000 |
| Luke Donald | +25000 |
| Matt Wallace | +25000 |
| Max McGreevy | +25000 |
| Peter Malnati | +25000 |
| Ryan Brehm | +25000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +25000 |
| Trey Mullinax | +25000 |
| Ben Kohles | +30000 |
| Ben Martin | +30000 |
| Bill Haas | +30000 |
| Brice Garnett | +30000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +30000 |
| Logan McAllister | +30000 |
| Nick Watney | +30000 |
| Richy Werenski | +30000 |
| Roger Sloan | +30000 |
| Seung-yul Noh | +30000 |
| Sung Kang | +30000 |
| Jared Wolfe | +30000 |
| Chesson Hadley | +35000 |
| Dylan Wu | +35000 |
| Guido Migliozzi | +35000 |
| James Hahn | +35000 |
| Paul Barjon | +35000 |
| Aaron Baddeley | +35000 |
| Austin Cook | +50000 |
| Ben Kern | +50000 |
| Bronson Burgoon | +50000 |
| Curtis Thompson | +50000 |
| David Skinns | +50000 |
| Dawie van der Walt | +50000 |
| Henrik Norlander | +50000 |
| Jim Herman | +50000 |
| Jonas Blixt | +50000 |
| Kelly Kraft | +50000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +50000 |
| Martin Trainer | +50000 |
| Michael Gligic | +50000 |
| Seth Reeves | +50000 |
| William McGirt | +50000 |
| Shawn Stefani | +50000 |
| Jake Kevorkian | +50000 |
| Samuel Saunders | +50000 |
Welcome back to the matchup article after a brief hiatus. In our last time out at THE PLAYERS Championship, we split our picks going 1-1. This week, we’ll look to build some momentum ahead of golf’s biggest event of the year.
For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Valero Texas Open. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Both of this week's picks are at FanDuel. Let’s get to them.
Chirs Kirk (+102) over Abraham Ancer
My line: -129
I have Kirk favored in this matchup. His streak of top-15 finishes ended at THE PLAYERS, but he gained 2.8 strokes on approach over the field, which is a sign that his game is still in great shape. He also has three top-10 finishes at the Valero Texas Open in seven starts.
Ancer, meanwhile, has struggled so far in 2022. He has two missed cuts in seven starts this year, and his best finish is 33rd.
Ancer has remained consistent off the tee, but his approach game has been hindering him. He ranks 72nd in this field in greens in regulation over his last 24 rounds.
The plus-money line offers great value here, since Kirk has the edge in this matchup.
*Editor's note: Ancer withdrew on Wednesday evening.
Patton Kizzire (-108) over Brendan Steele
My line: -131
The data suggests Kizzire is on the verge of a breakout performance in the coming weeks, and I really like him in this sport against Steele. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total.
Kizzire’s putter has been inconsistent and holding him back of late, which is ironic because it’s typically the strongest part of his game. He averages 0.8 strokes gained per tournament on Bermuda grass greens, which ranks 16th in this field. The data suggests his putter will return to form, which would be great for him given his current iron play.
This is also a great chance to take advantage of some recency bias associated with Steele’s last two finishes. Prior to his start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he had missed five straight cuts and was losing strokes to the field in nearly every statistical category.
While it’s possible Steele has figured something out of late, I’ll be betting on the larger sample of data that highlights his struggles over the last calendar year. Fire up Kizzire in this matchup.
