Updated 2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & 7 Picks for Patton Kizzire, Sahith Theegala, More

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We have one more stop before Augusta National, and it’s the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio hosts the PGA TOUR’s final stop before the Masters, and it could send one more player to Georgia next week. We’ve seen players win this tournament and punch their ticket to Augusta before, so why can’t it happen again?

That’s where our GolfBet team’s head is at this week. While big names like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau are in the field, their focus is on getting their games right. They have their flights booked on Sunday night to Augusta.

Check out the golfers who our team of betting analysts expect to thrive this week in the Lone Star State below, including how to back them.

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2022 Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Sahith Theegala — Top 10 (+600)

Jason Sobel: I’m not suggesting Theegala is going to enjoy a Scottie Scheffler or Sam Burns kind of progression in his career over the next 12-24 months … but I’m not not saying it, either.

Theegala has been exceptional on every competitive level so far, and that includes the PGA TOUR at times. In addition to that share of third place after being the 54-hole leader in Phoenix, Theegala was T7 in Tampa and T22 in Puntacana in his last two starts.

I’ll sprinkle some outright (+7500) on him this week, as well, considering it won’t be long before we’ll never see Theegala again at this type of price, especially in this kind of field. Jump on it while you still have the chance.

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Kevin Streelman +6500

Chris Murphy: One of the players I had my eye on to start the week was Kevin Streelman. He’s really come into form across his last couple of tournaments after a slow start to the year, especially on approach.

Streelman really found his irons at THE PLAYERS, gaining 3.7 shots on that elite field and continued his strong play on approach the following week at the Valspar. He’s now pairing that play alongside a game off-the-tee where he hasn’t lost strokes to any field this year and has been consistently strong in that metric.

The Valero is always a course where ball striking comes first and Streelman is certainly a player rounding into form in both aspects. He also has a strong history at this event, including Top 10s in his last two trips to TPC San Antonio. We know he will be fully motivated to improve on those results this week in the hopes of getting into next week’s Masters.

The way Streelman is starting to put everything together heading into a course he knows well has me liking his chances of being a name to watch over the weekend, especially at +6500.

Brendan Steele +8000

Matt Vincenzi: My favorite bet on the board this week is Brendan Steele. In his past two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS, Steele has gained 10.1 and 9.5 strokes from tee-to-green. He ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in his past 24 rounds, which has been statistically extremely important at this event in the past.

Steele’s combination of both distance and accuracy with the driver make him an ideal course fit at TPC San Antonio. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 9.7 strokes on the field in driving distance and 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy.

The main concern with Steele is always the putter. With that being said, when evaluating golfers who putt poorly overall, it is important to target the ones who are capable of having “spike” putting weeks. The 38-year-old is a perfect example of this.

Despite losing strokes putting to the field in 25 of his past 40 events, he has nine tournaments where he gained more than 4.0 strokes with the putter. To win a golf tournament, Steele doesn’t need to be a great putter; he needs to have one great putting week. The numbers prove that he is more than capable of doing that.

Steele has three PGA TOUR victories on his resume. Of the three, two have come at the same course (Safeway Open 2016 and 2017). This shows me that Steele is a golfer who continuously plays well on the same tracks and is a true “horses for courses” type of golfer.

As for Steele’s third PGA TOUR victory? You guessed it: the Valero Texas Open back in 2011. If he can win the Safeway twice, there’s no reason he can’t run it back this week at TPC San Antonio when he is in excellent form.

Aaron Baddeley — Top 40 (+360)

Rob Bolton: Not unlike TPC Sawgrass recently (but no matter the conditions), TPC San Antonio must be respected more as the host of a foolhardy crapshoot than a foregone conclusion. While winners threaten and touch 20-under on the stock par 72, danger is amplified. Ya gotta be careful out there. That goes for the golfers, too!

Ball-strikers should thrive, but the setup throws a bone at accuracy off the tee while keeping precision on approach in its lane. Touch around and on greens is given a stronger chance to shine here, too. See: Spieth, Jordan; 2021 champion.

Baddeley also checks that last box. Fellow Aussie Greg Norman designed the course, so there’s a level of comfort baked into it.

Badds was the medalist at open qualifying on Monday, and it’s a good thing because he’s a no-brainer for this prop. He’s 8-for-8 with seven top 40s at TPC San Antonio – all of which were top 30s – including in each of his last five trips dating back to 2015.

He’s also one of my sleepers at PGATOUR.com.

Mito Pereira — Top 20 (+250)

Landon Silinsky: Another week, another Mito Pereira writeup.

I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster ball-striker. If he even putts to a zero he can contend anywhere, anytime. Taking a long term view and going back 48 rounds, the Chilean's ranks in this field read: 20th off-the-tee, fourth on approach, fifth tee-to-green and third in total strokes gained. Monster.

If you remove THE PLAYERS where he caught the wrong end of the weather draw, he's made 10 of 13 cuts on the year with eight top-31 finishes and a pair of top-10s. Bermuda is his best putting surface, as well, which is what will be featured at TPC San Antonio this week.

Sign me up for a top-20.

Patton Kizzire: +6600 Outright & +600 Top 10

Derek Farnsworth: Many will lean to the ball strikers this week, and that’s certainly a strategy that I can get behind. However, Kizzire is an elite putter who is starting to flash some life with his ball-striking. If he can combine those two this week, I could easily see him winning his third TOUR title.

The big question mark for Kizzire this week is his driver. While he doesn’t lack distance, he does lack accuracy. If he can find a way to gain strokes with the driver, the rest of his game should follow suit. Over his last five starts, he has gained over 13 strokes on approach.

In his debut here last year, he finished T9 thanks to gaining 8.1 strokes on approach and 3.6 strokes putting. He’ll look to replicate that this week on the back of five straight made cuts. My plan is to put a sprinkle on the outright and a sprinkle on the top 10.

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Patton Kizzire +6600

Bryan Berryman: The data suggests that a breakout performance is on the horizon for Patton Kizzire, who has been playing well above his baseline so far in 2022.

Over the last 24 rounds, Kizzire ranks fifth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total. Ironically, it’s been an inconsistent putter that has been holding him back from top of the board finishes in that time frame. Over his career, he has gained an average of 0.8 strokes putting per tournament, which is his best statistical category.

There’s been flashes of the putter returning to form in recent weeks. If he can keep up this hot stretch of iron play, I like the chances of his putting coming through and carrying him to victory this week.