2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & PrizePicks: 4 Picks for Round 1 at TPC San Antonio

The AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010 and has been the warm-up for the Masters since 2019. Iron play is crucial to success at TPC San Antonio while driving and putting is more give-and-take.

The four previous winners of this event finished the course ahead of the field in two major categories: SG Tee-to-Green and SG Approach the Green. These analytic indicators confirm the importance of iron play at this event and should be used to narrow down the best bets for this tournament.

In SG Tee-to-Green, the four previous winners ranked 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd relative to the rest of the pack at TPC San Antonio. In SG Approach the Green, those four guys ranked 4th, 1st, 1st, and 4th in the field.

Below, I give out my four first-round PrizePicks flex plays for this weekend's Valero Texas Open. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays, getting four-of-four correct registers a 5x payout while three-of-four correct notches a 1.5x payout.

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PrizePicks Plays

Rory McIlroy: Round 1 Under 69.5 Strokes

McIlroy is the betting favorite to win this tournament, and for good reason. Not only is McIlroy playing against a relatively easy field, but Rory was one of the best iron players on tour last season as he ranked 10th in SG Tee-to-Green and 35th in SG Approach the Green.

Over his four events played this season, McIlroy boasts a positive true strokes gained in the approach. McIlroy is 4/4 on making the cut this season and has gone under 69.5 strokes in the first round in three of those tournaments.

In his one appearance at Valero in 2013, Rory finished in second place.

Zach Johnson: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Johnson's iron-play has been brutal this season, which is amplified by his metrics as he ranks just 178th in SG Tee-to-Green and 187th in SG Approach the Green. Over his last five tournaments, Johnson's true strokes gained in the approach is negative.

Zach Johnson's recent form has been poor as he has missed the cut in three of his last four tournaments. Tough first-round scores have haunted him this season as his first-round average over his last five tournaments is 72.2.

I do not think TPC San Antonio is a place where he will figure It out, especially considering he has missed the cut in two of his three appearances at the course.

Chez Reavie: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Ranking 108th in SG Tee-to-Green and 59th in SG Approach the Green, Reavie's iron-play is nothing to write home about. His recent form is concerning as his true strokes gained in the approach is negative over his last five tournaments and he has missed the cut in two of those.

Reavie's first-round average score over those five tournaments sits at 72.4, and he has gone over 71 strokes in the first round in all five of his prior appearances at TPC San Antonio.

Charles Howell III: Round 1 Over 71 Strokes

Another sub-average iron player is Charles Howell III, who ranks just 53rd in SG Tee-to-Green and 126th in SG Approach the Green. Over his last five tournaments, his true strokes gained in the approach is negative.

Charles' recent form is not great as he has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments. Much like Reavie, Howell III has never found success in the first round at TPC San Antonio as he has gone over 71 strokes in the first round in all three of his career appearances at the course.

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