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While it was frustrating dealing with all of the weather delays at THE PLAYERS last week, that was one of my favorite Mondays in recent memory. I thoroughly enjoyed watching golf all day while sweating my DFS lineups and bets. We now turn our attention to the final leg of the Florida swing — the Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par-71 that measures 7,340 yards. It's one of the more unique setups on the PGA TOUR, as it features four par fives and five par threes. Many compare this stop to more of a Carolina course than a Florida course, as it features tree-lined fairways and many elevation changes.
The combination of narrow fairways and numerous dog legs lead to many less-than-driver holes. The course appears to be long on the scorecard, but you don't need to be a bomber to contend this week. While approach play is always critical, it is even more-so at Copperhead. Golfers will be faced with a lot of mid to long iron shots, so it's no surprise to see the likes of Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson dominate here over the years.
The greens themselves are about 6% tougher to hit than TOUR average, which makes play around the green important, as well. This has played in the top 20 in difficulty each of the last six years and more often than not, it's in the top 10 in difficulty. Strong tee to green play is the name of the game this week.
Favorite Outright
Louis Oosthuizen +2400 (FanDuel)
Let me get this out of the way — yes, I know King Louis has never won a tournament in North America. He has been a constant bridesmaid on the PGA Tour.
Does this mean he can't win in America? Of course not. He's finished runner-up at every major and a number of other TOUR events (including this one). If he continues to put himself in contention, it's only a matter of time before he breaks through with a win.
Oosthuizen has been terrific in Florida throughout his career and even owns a ranch in the Sunshine State. He's finished T16 or better in each of his last four trips to Copperhead and hasn't missed a cut on the PGA TOUR since 2020.
Favorite Longshot
Alex Noren +7000 (FanDuel)
We've seen some bad putters win this event in the past, but that doesn't mean a good putter can't hold the trophy at the end of the week. Noren has always been known for his incredible short game and that was on full display here last year (+6.4 strokes on and around the greens).
Noren isn't the best off the tee, but that's not a huge concern this week. His iron play is really trending in the right direction, as he's gained over 16 strokes on approach in his last five events.
First-Round Leader
Keegan Bradley +5000 (PointsBet)
The term "going full Keegan" was born at this very event, at which he once went from being the first-round leader to missing the cut.
He's coming off of two top-11 finishes in a row, and both were thanks to tremendous Sundays at Bay Hill and at TPC Sawgrass. More importantly, he seems to love getting off to a fast start at this event. Over his last five appearances here, he's been in the top seven after the first round each and every time.
Favorite DFS Value
Pat Perez — $6,900 DraftKings / $8,300 FanDuel
This is the weakest field that we have had in quite some time, so the value range feels a lot thinner than usual.
One value that I have my eye on is Perez, who has quietly been making cuts and who finished T29 here last year. There isn't a lot that stands out when it comes to his stats, but he's above the field average in good drive percentage, Strokes Gained: Approach, bogey avoidance, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.
