Updated 2022 Valspar Championship Odds & Picks for Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak, More

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To paraphrase Bill Belichick: We’re on to Tampa.

Finally.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: There are some thunderstorms in the forecast for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

OK, so precipitation in the Tampa area this Saturday probably won’t cause massive delays for the Valspar Championship, but after a year which started with more than two full months of perfect weather, last week’s often-suspended PLAYERS Championship should have us pining for four days as scheduled.

Speaking of which, I won’t delay the picks any longer, as THE PLAYERS ended about five minutes ago, and I’m pretty sure the Valspar starts in another five minutes, so get those bets in quickly.

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Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament.

Gary Woodland (+7000)

I don’t love this. You need to know that right off the bat. There are times when I really like my pre-tourney outright selection, but this isn’t one of ‘em.

I was searching for a player who didn’t have to wait out the entire weekend at THE PLAYERS, ostensibly coming into this one a little more well-rested than those who played the entire thing. (I like Keegan Bradley, as you’ll see below, but coming off a Monday evening title contention, some lethargy is inevitable.) But I didn’t want a guy who’d just missed the cut and has short odds this week, that scares me just a little. (Sure, maybe Collin Morikawa was simply mired in the bad draw last week, but I’m not paying down to 11/1 to find out.)

So instead, I went seeking a player who didn’t make the cut and owns some longer odds, but also one who should have some win equity; I mean, there’s no point in taking a guy with a massive number who can’t win. (Matt Wallace is a nice player with a big price, but he hasn’t made a single cut in the U.S. yet this year.)

Put all those things together and the dial landed on Woodland, who won this tournament 11 years ago, but admittedly hasn’t done much since. He has MCs in four of his last six appearances and nothing inside the top-40.

Even though he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, he was right there in the mix at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago, as a pair of pars on the final two holes would’ve given him the title. He’s certainly back to playing some better golf and could maybe find some good vibes at this one.

But again: If we ranked PGA TOUR plays like a college football bowl game confidence pool, this one might be last on my list. Full transparency.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Louis Oosthuizen (+2000) and Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)

I’ve grouped these two together here, as I’ve often written about each of them being difficult OAD plays – guys that you might not want to use ahead of superstars at the majors, but also don’t have a lot of great options at other events.

This feels like a solid spot for each, as they pseudo-contended at TPC Sawgrass but were never quite directly in the mix. Each tends to show up, especially at Florida-based events – and Oosthuizen, in particular, owns a strong record here, with results of 17th or better in each of his last four appearances.

Keegan Bradley (+5000)

I swear – honestly – the reigning runner-up at this event was on my list well before he ever finished solo fifth at THE PLAYERS. In fact, being in the mix through five days almost makes me like him a little less, as does the decreased value, but I still don’t mind him here as an OAD option, based on that intersection of form and history.

Adam Svensson (+12500)

If you’re seeking a player who didn’t even tee it up last week, who owns some upside and will certainly be contrarian to your fellow OADers, then Svensson might be an intriguing play.

With a pair of top-10s already this year, the Canadian now has former Bryson DeChambeau caddie Tim Tucker on the bag and the two of them seem to be working a little magic together in the early going. Feel free to plug him in for props and DFS lineups, as well.

Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Jason Kokrak (+700 for top-five)

With five finishes of 14th or better in the last seven editions of this event, Kokrak is one of the lone course horses who should be a reliable play this week.

He’s yet to play his best golf this year, but a pair of T26 results prior to a share of 53rd at THE PLAYERS should be enough to make us at least slightly optimistic. And with three wins over the past year-and-a-half, you know there’s some win equity, too.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Aaron Wise (+575)

This play – like the next couple of props, as well – is essentially my version of when an NFL team takes the proverbial “best player available” in the draft. I’m going to list a few guys who I’ve been keeping an eye on, players who I like to scare some leaderboards soon, so this feels like as good a time as any.

Wise is playing for a sixth consecutive week and owns just one finish better than 50th so far, but we’ll call this a "hunchy" play. I still think there are going to be a few weeks when he contends for some titles.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+250)

Another guy who could start doing some good things soon is C-Bez, who likely ranks among the best players with a PGA TOUR membership who didn’t squeak into last week’s field. Again, though, that might only leave him refreshed and recharged while others are still drying out their socks. He’s tended to play his best golf in Florida, so this could be a nice floor play.

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Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Doc Redman

Ah, I’ve been waiting for the good doctor to start playing better and a T26 finish last week is enough for me to look for a repeat this week. In his lone Innisbrook start last year, he posted bookend 68s to close at T-39, so there’s a sign this could be a decent track for him.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

Max McGreevy (+280)

We can either look at his five MCs to start the year or his solo second-place finish in Puerto Rico two weeks ago. I’ll prefer to go with the latter, though any such duplication seems a far reach. That said, it’s only a top-40 play, so backing a player at this price who’s riding some momentum isn’t the worst idea.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Viktor Hovland

I’m undoubtedly putting way too much stock into last week/this week’s results, taking the high-priced stud who fared the best at THE PLAYERS, which might be such a chalky idea that it turns out to be contrarian.

There’s certainly something to be said for Morikawa or Xander Schauffele or Brooks Koepka, each of whom missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass and should have the built-in advantage of a few extra days’ rest. I don’t dislike any of ‘em, but Hovland is so enticing for the fact that he just so rarely takes a week off.

Innisbrook is a great course for the tee-to-green guys and while it fits any of those aforementioned superstars, Viktor is the guy whose skillset might make him ripe for another title contention.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS.

C.T. Pan

He entered THE PLAYERS with finishes of 9th-16th in his previous two starts, then opened with a 3-under 69 at TPC Sawgrass. A second-round 79 led to a missed cut, but it hardly suggests that he’s out of form. Pan could be a sneaky play in all formats this week, but I’ll take him in DFS, especially, as he might not be in the forefront of plans for fellow DFSers.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)

For those who believe that lightning doesn’t strike twice, I’ll refer you to last week’s first round, when lightning struck a whole bunch of times, causing a lengthy suspension of play. Once that round was finally completed, Fleetwood was co-leader (alongside Tom Hoge).

While it might be asking a bit much for a repeat FRL play, I wanted a Fleetwood investment and wasn’t sure about jumping all the way in for the entire tournament. Let’s see if he can parlay last week’s early lead into another one.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Lanto Griffin (+9000)

Simply put, he fits the Woodland mold this week. Another guy who MC’d last week, has a decent number this week and is capable of winning against this type of field. At the very least, that MC was his first in his last 10 starts, so you’re getting a player with a nice floor who could win H2H wagers either on Friday or Sunday.

We always like the guys who give us two chances to cash and Lanto could fit the bill this week.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value.

Paul Casey (+2200), Jhonattan Vegas (+9000), Cameron Tringale (+11000) Mito Pereira (+12500), Sahith Theegala (+15000), Branden Grace (+15000)

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The Big Fade

One top player to avoid at this tournament.

Sam Burns (+2200)

This one pains me because I’m a massive fan of Burns’ game. After watching his final two rounds at TPC Sawgrass, though, it looked like he’d rather be anywhere than on a golf course this coming week.

So, why is he playing? That’s easy: This will be his first of two title defenses this year and, well, it’s bad form to not return to the site of a victory, especially the very next year after you’ve won your first.

There will be much better performances for Burns and quite possibly very soon, but I’m going to stay away after seeing how gassed he looked at the end of the last one.

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