2022 Waste Management Open Odds & Picks: TPC Scottsdale Fits Justin Thomas & Jordan Spieth

After an exciting finish at Pebble Beach, we head to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Open. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.

The 2022 edition of the tournament will provide plenty of intrigue and an excellent field of 132, including Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Adam Scott, and Webb Simpson.

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).

We've backtested past tournaments at TPC Scottsdale to see which metrics matter this week.

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Past Winners at the Waste Management Phoenix Open

• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
• 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
• 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
• 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
• 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
• 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)

Let's take a look at several metrics for TPC Scottsdale to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will once again be very important this week.

In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau. Last year, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth.

The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds:

1. Daniel Berger (+30.1) (+3000)
2. Russell Henley (+23.5) (+5500)
3. Tom Hoge (+21.6) (+6000)
4. Viktor Hovland (+20.8) (+1600)
5. Jon Rahm (+18.8) (+700)

SG: Off the Tee

TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.

SG: OTT per Round in Past 24 Rounds:

1. Jon Rahm (+20.6) (+700)
2. Luke List (+16.5) (+6000)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+15.4) (+1200)
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+15.0) (+4000)
5. Corey Conners (+14.9) (+6600)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Firm and Fast)

Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, the greens at TPC Scottsdale have qualified as "firm" and "fast" in every round but two since 2015.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Firm and Fast Greens

1. Denny McCarthy (+25.7) (+10000)
2. Sam Burns (+24.7) (+3300)
3. Harris English (+22.7) (+6000)
4. Rickie Fowler (+20.0) (+8000)
5. Daniel Berger (+19.6) (+3000)

Greens in Regulation: Gained

Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale say Greens in Regulation: Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than TOUR average.

With many bunkers and firm dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.

Total Greens in Regulation Gained: Gained in Past 24 Rounds

1. Luke List (+32.7) (+6000)
2. Russell Knox (+31.3) (+11000)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+26.3) (+1200)
4. Russell Henley (+24.9) (+5500)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+24.3) (+2800)

Opportunities Gained

I'm looking for golfers who will get a lot of birdie looks this week. With the winner in the high teens under par on average, birdies will be a requirement.

Opportunities Gained: Past 24 Rounds

1. Jason Dufner (+33.4) (+35000)
2. Viktor Hovland (+25.4) (+1600)
3. Russell Henley (+25.1) (+3000)
4. Justin Thomas (+23.9) (+1200)
5. Jon Rahm (+23.7) (+700)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%), SG: OTT (25%), SG: Putting Firm and Fast (16.7%), GIR (16.7%) and Opportunities Gained (16.7%).

1. Sam Burns (+3300)
2. Jon Rahm (+700)
3. Bubba Watson (+4000)
4. Charley Hoffman (+12000)
5. Brooks Koepka (+3500)
6. Emiliano Grillo (+22500)
7. Justin Thomas (+1200)
8. Matthew NeSmith (+20000)
9. Doc Redman (+25000)
10. Daniel Berger (+3000)

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2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Outright Bets

Justin Thomas (+1200)

With 14 career wins at only 28 years old, there is no one on TOUR who offers more win equity than Justin Thomas. With his last win coming almost 11 months ago (March 2021), Thomas is past due for another TOUR victory. 

Not only is “JT” due for a ceiling week, but TPC Scottsdale is the ideal spot on the schedule for it to happen. There are a few trends that point to Thomas as an eventual winner in Phoenix: Nine of the past 10 winners at TPC Scottsdale have either a PLAYERS Championship victory or a major championship. Thomas has both.

Additionally, 10 of the past 11 winners of the event have had a top-seven finish or better in one of their last five starts at the WMPO. With finishes of 17th, third, third, and 13th, respectively, in his past four starts, Thomas certainly fits the bill. 

Despite the lack of wins in the past calendar year, Thomas has sneakily been playing some very good golf lately. With five top-20 finishes in his past five starts, including three top threes, he has shown he has been slowly trending toward a victory. 

TPC Scottsdale is famous for its electric atmosphere and energetic group of fans. As we saw at Whistling Straits for the Ryder Cup, fans have seemingly been a motivation for Thomas, and I expect him to be fired up in Phoenix. 

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Jordan Spieth (+2200)

Last season, the Waste Management Open is what started the career resurgence for Jordan Spieth. He finished in fourth place and gained an incredible 7.8 strokes on approach, which led the field and was his best performance on approach since 2017.

Spieth parlayed that performance into a scorching hot stretch that included seven top-10 finishes in his next 12 events played. Last week, Spieth flashed the hot irons once again, which may start another hot stretch for the 28-year-old. 

Along with his propensity to stay hot once he starts playing well, Spieth also tends to play well at courses that he has shown a liking to in the past. With three top-seven finishes in his past five trips to the Waste Management Open, TPC Scottsdale certainly qualifies as a course that Spieth enjoys. 

If Spieth had won last week, it's very likely that his price would be significantly slashed this week. The fact that he played well enough to win but didn't get the odds reduction that comes with an actual win provides betting value on him this week.

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