Updated 2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds & 7 Picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners, More

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For the second straight week, there is an overwhelming betting favorite on the PGA TOUR.

Last week, Jon Rahm cruised to a win at the Mexico Open. At this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, it’s Rory McIlroy who is the only golfer below 20-1 at most books. McIlroy is the defending champion at this tournament, although he won at Quail Hollow last year.

This year, the tournament moves to TPC Potomac with Quail Hollow preparing for the Presidents Cup this fall. The courses are quite different, with this year’s venue rewarding approach play and driving accuracy much more.

We have a strong field this week, with some golfers using this as their final tuneup before the PGA Championship in two weeks at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla.

Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board and identified its favorite picks for the week. Check out their best bets below.

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Troy Merritt — Top 10 (+700)

Jason Sobel: I’ve peeled back this curtain before, but on most weeks, I’ll spend Sunday afternoon/evening studying up on the upcoming week’s tournament, making a list of players I like and those I don’t, before plugging them in based on Monday morning’s odds release. This week, Merritt shot up my list like he had a neon arrow pointing to his name. He won in the D.C. area back in 2015 (at Robert Trent Jones), finished T17 the last time a PGA TOUR event was played at TPC Potomac and has finished T4 and T12 in his last two starts.

The 36-year-old two-time champion isn’t often someone who stands out, but those results combined with his recent metrics left me wanting to play him in some prop bets and even sprinkle a little outright … until I saw his price. The first book I checked was DraftKings, which listed him at an irrationally short +3500 – the same odds as Paul Casey (!), Sergio Garcia (!!), Abraham Ancer ([) and Gary Woodland ([!) – with an eventual top-10 number of +330. Uh, no thanks.

I don’t know how the DK traders got inside my head before I even wrote a thing about this tourney, but they sufficiently crossed Merritt off my list with that price. In golf betting, though, we never give up.

As we so often say, it pays to shop around various books and it didn’t take long for me to start finding better numbers. I found Merritt listed at +6600 with BetMGM, +7000 with PointsBet and +7500 with FanDuel. The last of those came with a +700 number for a top-10 bet, more than twice what’s available at DK and much more palatable for an actual wager.

Whether or not Merritt’s measurables can cash this ticket remains to be seen, but the lesson here holds true: Make sure you look around.

Matthew NeSmith — Top 20 (+300)

Chris Murphy: I’m going to my fellow Gamecock in Matthew NeSmith for my best bet this week. He’s showing up in all of the metrics I want this week after finding some form since the Honda Classic, where he posted his first top-25 of the year. He has since added two more top-12 finishes, including a third at the Valspar in March.

When NeSmith is at his best he is a great iron player, as shown by his five plus strokes gained on approach in three of his last five tournaments and even as some poor outings are sandwiched in between, he is showing the upside we want in a week like this at TPC Potomac. He will be able to pair those irons with a game off the tee that has gained strokes on the field in each of his last seven tournaments as he leans on accuracy to put himself in position to score.

While this course will lend an edge to long and accurate, shorter players can get around too as long as they are playing from the fairway, and NeSmith fits that profile. He’s one of the top players in the field from the key approach distances from 150-200 yards and is a player I’ll be betting up and down the board.

My favorite is his +300 to top 20 on BetMGM where they pay ties in full, but he may end up on my card if you can find him at 100-1 as an outright.

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Matt Fitzpatrick +2200

Matt Vincenzi: In 2018, there was a certain narrative regarding a supremely talented European golfer who "couldn't win" on the PGA TOUR.

Leading into the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac, Molinari had never won a PGA TOUR event. Prior to the victory, he had contended at numerous events throughout his career but couldn't get over the hump. After the Italian got his win at TPC Potomac he went on to win the Open Championship in 2018 and Arnold Palmer invitational in '19.

Another golfer who carries a reputation thus far in his career of not being able to get it done on the PGA TOUR is Fitzpatrick. Like Molinari, the Englishman has gotten into contention plenty of times, including at THE PLAYERS and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The Englishman also has a very similar skillset to an in-form Molinari and feels like a perfect fit for TPC Potomac.

The Englishman ranks in the top 25 in the field in Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and Good Drives Gained. He is excellent with the driver and will keep the ball in play on a course which that's an absolute requirement.

The main concern I have when betting Fitzpatrick is whether he can make enough birdies to keep pace on the scoring-fests we usually see on the PGA TOUR. Considering TPC Potomac has played quite difficult in the past, I don't expect the winning score to get out of hand this week, making it an ideal fit for Fitzpatrick's style of play.

Adam Svensson — Top 10 (+2000)

Derek Farnsworth: Given the fact that this number is between +1000 and +1300 on all the other major sportsbooks, I don’t know how much longer this will last. However, I hopped on at +2000 early Tuesday morning and it’s still available to bet on DraftKings.

Svensson was a popular sleeper last week and ended up missing the cut in Mexico. It wasn’t a great performance by any means, but the course clearly favored those who could bomb it off the tee. Svensson’s strength is his iron game, which makes him a much better fit for TPC Potomac.

This isn’t a course that can be overpowered off the tee and accuracy has been more important than distance the two times we have seen it in action (2017 and ‘18 Quicken Loans). While Svensson doesn’t gain a ton of strokes off the tee, he does hit a lot of fairways. He’s 11th in this field in strokes gained on approach in 2022 and he’s first in this field in proximity from 175-225 yards in 2022. He’s volatile week-to-week, but does have two top 10 finishes in his last 11 starts.

Ultimately, he should finish in the top 10 at this event more often than one in 20 tries. This is a great number that may not be around by the time Thursday rolls around.

Seamus Power, Max Homa and Marc Leishman all to make the cut (+210)

Rob Bolton: FanDuel has reintroduced its smorgasbord of Golf Specials, but as tempting as it is to take a swing at a three-headed, top-10 parlay — Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners and Russell Henley values at +3300 (in Golf Specials 3) — the conservative in me is content with the make-the-cut combo with as many players over at BetMGM. The relative uncertainty of TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm and its challenge demands pause.

Leishman and Power sit No. 1 and 11, respectively, in my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com, so that’s free money. I’ve also endorsed the soon-to-be, first-time father in Draws and Fades. Homa has been in a groove longer than we’ve known that the stork has travel plans.

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Joel Dahmen — Top 20 (+290)

Landon Silinsky: Dahmen bounced back from his withdrawal at the Corales Puntacana Championship to post a T12 at the RBC Heritage in his last start. Prior to his WD, he had only missed two cuts on the season in 14 starts, including two top-10 finishes as well.

Taking a long term view, Dahmen's numbers look great. He ranks eighth in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR% and 27th in Total Strokes Gained, all over his past 48 rounds in this field. He's become an incredibly consistent golfer and he even finished T23 in his lone start at TPC Potomac in 2018. He could very well build on that finish this time around and at almost 3/1 I will take my chances.

Corey Conners +2000

Bryan Berryman: Due to the limited historical Strokes Gained data we have available for TPC Potomac, I’ve had to go a bit old school with my approach to diagnosing the course this week.

After compiling the research, it appears this is a course that will reward the good shots, while severely punishing the bad one. Through this process, the same name kept coming to mind for me, Corey Conners.

Over the last 50 rounds, Conners ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. This combination of accuracy both off the tee and into greens will be paramount when attacking a course that has trouble lurking with any poorly struck shot.

Coming off a sixth-place finish at the Masters, and a 12th the following week at RBC Heritage, Conners is in great form. I like the way his game shapes up to attack TPC Potomac this week.

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